Tobacco control and Healthy China 2030

Abstract

BackgroundThe Healthy China 2030 strategy sets ambitious targets for China’s policy-makers, including a decrease in the smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% by 2030. China has made progress on tobacco control in recent years, but many key measures remain underused. This study explores the potential for full implementation of these measures to achieve the targeted reduction in smoking by 2030.MethodsFirst, a ‘business as usual’ scenario for China’s cigarette market was developed based only on underlying economic parameters. Second, non-price tobacco control measures were then added assuming they are fully implemented by 2030. Third, excise per pack was raised to a level that would increase the real price of cigarettes by 50% in 2030.FindingsUnder the business as usual scenario, the rate of smoking falls to around 26.6% in 2030. When non-price measures are included, the rate of smoking falls to 22.0% (20.9%~23.1%). Thus, non-price measures alone are unlikely to achieve the Healthy China target. Under the third scenario, excise per pack was roughly doubled in 2030 in order to increase real cigarette prices by 50%. The rate of smoking then falls to 19.7% (18.2%~21.3%), reflecting 78 million (59~97 million) fewer smokers compared with 2016. In addition, real excise revenue from cigarettes increases by 21% (−3%~47%) compared with 2016.ConclusionSignificantly higher tobacco taxes will be needed to achieve Healthy China 2030 target for reduced smoking even after the implementation of other tobacco control measures.

Epidemiology of lung cancer in China

“…Given the high smoking rate and psychological and financial burdens, the Chinese government launched a national strategy, Health China 2030, which aims to reduce the prevalence of smoking to < 20% . Measures such as increasing the cost and taxation on tobacco and assigning smoke‐free locations have led to a significant decrease in the smoking rate, from 30.2% to 26.9% over 2000–2015 (Fig ).…”

Use of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS) in China: Evidence from Citywide Representative Surveys from Five Chinese Cities in 2018

“…The Healthy China 2030 blueprint sets an ambitious goal to reduce the overall smoking rate from 27.7% in 2015 to 20% in 2030 in China, which means that China will need to help more than 75 million smokers to successfully quit smoking in the next decade [6,7]. However, a large proportion of Chinese smokers do not intend to quit smoking and smoking is still a social norm in China [8].…”

“…Given the large smoking population and the weak tobacco control environment in China [1,6,35], ENDS could play a large role in either accelerating the tobacco epidemic, if ENDS promoted nicotine use among a new generation of Chinese youth and young adults who would otherwise not use any nicotine or tobacco products, or decelerating the tobacco toll if ENDS could help adult smokers to quit cigarettes and eventually quit all tobacco products. The net population health benefits of ENDS will be largely determined by whether the potential benefit of cessation among adult smokers could be outweighed by the costs of tobacco initiation among Chinese youth.…”

Impacts of smoking status on the clinical outcomes of coronary non-target lesions in patients with coronary heart disease: a single-center angiographic study

“…We proposed that smoking aggravate the instability of coronary plaque which resulting in plaque rupture and subsequently myocardial infarction. As the smoking rate in China was reported to be 27.7% at 2015, [ 27 ] it is of great challenge for our government to implement stricter tobacco control policies.…”