Tobacco price increase and smoking behaviour changes in various subgroups: a nationwide longitudinal 7-year follow-up study among a middle-aged Japanese population

Abstract

ObjectiveFew longitudinal studies have examined the effect of tobacco price increase on both cessation among smokers and relapse among quitters. Our objective was to investigate the differential impact of the tobacco price increase on the changes in smoking status in the total population and various subgroups.MethodsWe analysed data from a Japanese nationally representative longitudinal study of 30 773 individuals aged 50–59 years (weighted sum of discrete-time number = 215 411) with smoking information, using inverse probability weighting to account for non-response at follow-up. Generalised estimating equation models were used to calculate the odds ratios (ORs) for smoking behavioural changes (cessation among smokers and relapse among quitters), using discrete-time design. Stratified analyses were conducted according to demographic, socioeconomic and health behavioural characteristics.ResultsFrom 2005 to 2012, current smoker prevalence among the middle-aged Japanese population decreased from 30.5% to 24.3%. Of all the factors surveyed, only the tobacco price increase in 2010 (up by 37%, the highest increase during the period) was significantly associated with both cessation among smokers (OR 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.90 to 2.41) and prevention of relapse among quitters (0.60, 0.46 to 0.77). Regarding the subgroup analysis, the tobacco price increase was associated with a significant reduction in relapse in the lowest income, recent quitters and very poor health subgroups. However, different associations were observed for cessation; a significant association between price increase and cessation was observed among all subgroups except for the heavy smoker and recently unemployed subgroups.ConclusionsWe confirmed that the tobacco price rise was associated with increasing cessation and decreasing relapse concurrently. Furthermore, this price rise was associated with favourable smoking changes in nearly all population subgroups; a large differential impact was not observed across the various subgroups.

Longitudinal Associations of Local Cigarette Prices and Smoking Bans with Smoking Behavior in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

“…5–8,10–12,49 Only two longitudinal studies have previously examined the association of cigarette prices with smoking relapse. 51,52 Those studies found higher prices were negatively associated with relapse, in contrast to our findings.…”

Development of a risk prediction model for lung cancer: The Japan Public Health Center‐based Prospective Study

“…In the present study, smoking was found to have a strong and dose‐independent effect on the risk of death before lung cancer occurrence, which translated into higher 10‐year cumulative probabilities of death in smokers (eg, approximately 30% in smokers vs 19% in never‐smokers for men aged 70 years). Given that smoking is a modifiable risk factor with a strong impact on health, this finding emphasizes again the need for better strategies for smoking control at both the individual level (information and prevention campaigns) and institutional level (eg, promotion of tobacco‐free public places and control of cigarette prices) …”

“…Given that smoking is a modifiable risk factor with a strong impact on health, this finding emphasizes again the need for better strategies for smoking control at both the individual level (information and prevention campaigns) and institutional level (eg, promotion of tobacco-free public places and control of cigarette prices). 6,30 In addition to the role of smoking history, age at start of followup was also found to have a substantial impact on lung cancer occurrence, with a differential effect between genders, the risk increasing more steeply in older men than in older women. This translates into a higher incidence of lung cancer in older men for a given level of exposure to other risk factors.…”

Saudi Smokers' Behaviors After a 100% Tax Increase

“…In Australia, a study by Burton, Clark, Heuler, Bollerup and Jackson (2011) found that heavy smokers bought their tobacco products from outlets that offered a lower price, while lighter smokers used outlets that were more convenient for them. In Japan, a study by Tabuchi, Fujiwara and Shinozaki (2017) found that price increase affected various subgroups but not heavy smokers or the recently unemployed.…”