Tokyo’s long-term socioeconomic pathways: Towards a sustainable future

Kamei, Miho; Hanaki, Keisuke; Kurisu, Kiyo

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2016.07.002

Cited by 30 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…So far, extended SSPs include extended SSPs of urban and population development worldwide [40,41], in coastal areas [42,43], and in large cities [44], extended SSPs for health [45,46], for the water sector [47,48], for fisheries [49], for the forestry sector [50], and for food security worldwide [51], in West-Africa [52], and in South-East Asia [53], and extended SSPs for specific regions, e.g. the Barents region [54], the Arctic [55], Tokyo [56], Iberia [57], Scotland [57], the US [58], and Europe [5,59].…”

Section: Extended Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Rohat¹

2018

Preprint

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The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new global development trends that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

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Section: Extended Sspsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Rohat¹

2018

Preprint

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“…Sin embargo, trabajos recientes han postulado que se pueden solventar estas dificultades si se identifican los factores cuantitativos claves, a escalas más pequeñas y medidas en lapsos más cortos (van Ruijven et al, 2014). De hecho, ya se han extendido los análisis y narrativas a niveles subnacionales (Absar y Preston, 2015; Kamei, Hanaki y Kurisu, 2016;Mason-D'Croz et al, 2016). Aunque todavía en desarrollo, hay interés sobre su utilidad para el análisis de la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación por su potencialidad para considerar cambios futuros de las condiciones que, según algunos estudios, están vinculadas con éstas.…”

Section: Figuraunclassified

“…Las SSP están extendiendo sus aplicaciones temáticamente y a escalas menores; por ejemplo, utilizan las narrativas junto con otros métodos de participación y planeación estratégica para incorporar la perspectiva de usuarios y tomadores de decisiones (Mason-D'Croz et al, 2016). Por contar con una mayor preocupación por la adaptación y la vulnerabilidad, tienen capacidad de dialogar con esquemas mixtos y específicos de adaptación; por ejemplo, existen aplicaciones subnacionales, para regiones costeras, de ciudades y su desarrollo tecnológico (Absar y Preston, 2015; Kamei, Hanaki y Kurisu, 2016;Merkens, Reimann, Hinkel y Vafeidis, 2016). También se está avanzado en tener estimaciones poblacionales con mayor especificación geográfica y de urbanización, para lograr una mejor evaluación de la adaptación y la vulnerabilidad (Jones y O'Neill, 2016).…”

Section: La Nueva Agenda De Investigación Del Cambio Climático Y Sus unclassified

Trayectorias Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSP): nuevas maneras de comprender el cambio climático y social

Castillo

Peña

Delgado

2017

EDU

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Si bien recientemente la comunidad científica confirmó el papel de la actividad humana en las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, todavía existen importantes retos para considerar las transformaciones sociales futuras y sus efectos sobre el clima y las sociedades. En este trabajo discutimos la utilización de los escenarios de cambio climático como una herramienta heurística para examinar las interacciones entre los sistemas terrestres y lo social. Discutimos particularmente la utilidad de las Trayectorias Socioeconómicas Compartidas que modelan futuros alternativos de desarrollo con distintos desafíos de mitigación y de adaptación al cambio climático. Reflexionamos sobre sus antecedentes, aplicaciones y usos potenciales para México.

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“…extended SSPs for health (Ebi 2013, Sellers and, food security worldwide (Hasegawa et al 2015), the water sector (Wada et al 2016, Yao et al 2017, fisheries (Maury et al 2017), forestry , population distribution (Jones and O'Neill 2016), and urbanization (Li et al 2019). However, there has been only a few regional extensions, limited as for now to extended SSPs for the Barents Region (Nilsson et al 2017), the South-East US (Absar and Preston 2015), West-Africa (Palazzo et al 2017), New Zealand (Frame et al 2018), the Mediterranean coast (Reimann et al 2018), the Baltic Sea (Zandersen et al 2019), Europe (Kok et al 2019, Tokyo (Kamei et al 2016), and Houston (Rohat et al in revision). The two latter set of extended SSPs -which are the only existing urban extended SSPs to our knowledge -have been developed based on the review of historical trends, and subsequently refined through an interactive process with key local experts using individual interviews and/or questionnaires.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

Lino¹,

Rohat²,

Kirshen³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Climate change will impact cities' infrastructure and urban dwellers, who often show differentiated capacity to cope with climate-related hazards. An emerging research field, using the latest global socioeconomic and climate scenarios -namely the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration (RCPs) -is exploring how different socioeconomic pathways will influence future society's ability to cope with climate change impacts. While the SSPs have been extensively used at the global scale, their use at the local and urban scale has remained rare, as they first need to be contextualized and extended for the particular place of interest. In this study, we present and apply a method to develop multi-scale extended SSPs at the city and neighborhood scale. Using Boston, Massachusetts, as a case study, we combined scenario matching, experts' elicitation, and participatory processes to contextualize and make the global SSPs relevant at the urban scale. We subsequently employed the extended SSPs to explore future neighborhood-level vulnerability to extreme heat under multiple plausible socioeconomic trajectories, highlighting the usefulness of extended SSPs in informing future vulnerability assessments. The large differences in outcomes hint at the enormous potential of risk reduction that social and urban planning policies could trigger in the next decades.

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Tokyo’s long-term socioeconomic pathways: Towards a sustainable future

Cited by 30 publications

References 25 publications

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Trayectorias Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSP): nuevas maneras de comprender el cambio climático y social

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways at the city scale to inform future vulnerability assessments – The case of Boston, Massachusetts

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