The need to account for design inputs variabilities effect on predicted performance has led many design procedures to address the issue of reliability for pavement applications. The Florida cracking model utilizes an empirically derived reliability for fatigue cracking design of asphalt pavements. A reliability approach, which is based on probabilistic uncertainty quantification, is necessary in order to account properly and effectively for the contribution of the variability in each parameter to the overall variance. This paper presents a load and resistance factor design (LRFD) procedure for the Florida cracking model. By delivering designs of uniform reliability, LRFD provides the basis for developing quality control and quality assurance standards. A first order reliability method (FORM) which incorporates central composite design (CCD) based surrogate model is employed to compute the reliability and formulate the partial safety factors. The reliability calibration was achieved based on field pavement sections that have a wide range in design inputs and target reliability. Illustrative designs based on the developed LRFD procedure has shown the effectiveness of the partial safety factors, and thus giving further confirmation to the credibility of the employed reliability analysis methodology.
INTRODUCTIONLoad induced top-down fatigue cracking (i.e., cracking that initiates at the surface of asphalt concrete (AC) layer and propagates downward) has been observed in many parts of the world (e.g., 1-4). It is widely accepted that top-down cracking results from a critical combination of load, thermal and aging effects. A multi-year research at the University of Florida has led to the development of a new hot mix asphalt fracture mechanics (HMA-FM) framework. HMA-FM is based on visco-elastic principle and predicts the initiation and propagation of top-down cracking (e.g., 5, 6). Based on the performance evaluation of field pavement sections, a parameter termed energy ratio (ER) which relates well with the observed performance in the field was identified and introduced into HMA-FM (7). Utilizing ER as a design criterion, a mechanistic empirical (M-E) pavement design model for top-down fatigue cracking was developed. The model was calibrated and validated on a number of field pavement sections from the State of Florida and has been found to be successful in distinguishing pavement sections which exhibited cracking from those that did not. The energy ratio method has recognized the importance of accounting for the effects of uncertainty in design inputs on predicted performance, and has therefore incorporated an empirically derived reliability concept. These reliability factors were developed by fitting computed ER values of a single section with respective target reliabilities without accounting directly for the effects of design inputs variabilities on performance (8). A reliability which is not based on probabilistic method of uncertainty propagation might not give designs of uniform target reliability th...