Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change

Abstract

Climate change is expected to threaten endemic plants in the Alps. In this context, the factors that may modulate species responses are rarely investigated at a local scale. We analyzed eight alpine narrow endemics of the Dolomites (southeastern Alps) under different predicted climate change scenarios at fine spatial resolutions. We tested possible differences in elevation, topographic heterogeneity and velocity of climate change among areas of gained, lost, or stable climatic habitat. The negative impact of climate change ranged from moderate to severe, depending on scenario and species. Generally, range loss occurred at the lowest elevations, while gained and stable areas were located at highest elevations. For six of the species, climate change velocity had higher values in stable and gained areas than in lost ones. Our findings support the role of topographic heterogeneity in maintaining climatic microrefugia, however, the peculiar topography of the Dolomites, characterized by high altitude plateaus, resulted in high climate change velocity in areas of projected future climatic suitability. Our study supports the usefulness of multiple predictors of spatio-temporal range dynamics for regional climate-adapted management and eventual assisted colonization planning to not overlook or overestimate the potential impact of climate change locally.

Red-listed plants are contracting their elevational range faster than common plants in the European Alps

“…Asynchronous range shifts can have complex consequences on species interactions and community dynamics, leading to biotic interactions between mixes of movers and stayers ( 56 , 57 ). To predict novel community assemblages, it would be important to comprehend the role of microclimatic refugia in affecting species range shifts ( 58 – 60 ). For instance, colder northern slopes or aspects could serve as effective microclimatic refugia for cold-dwelling species at an early phase of climate warming ( 59 ).…”

“…To predict novel community assemblages, it would be important to comprehend the role of microclimatic refugia in affecting species range shifts ( 58 – 60 ). For instance, colder northern slopes or aspects could serve as effective microclimatic refugia for cold-dwelling species at an early phase of climate warming ( 59 ). In accordance with recent studies ( 46 , 47 , 52 ), our results indicated that increased disturbance and eutrophication induced by intensive land-uses might be important drivers of range shifts besides temperature warming.…”

“…However, in several mountain ranges across the globe ( 51 ), the large majority of protected areas are usually established at high elevations because of the conflicts with economic development. Even if in the future endemic high-altitude plants might be increasingly threatened by climate warming ( 14 , 59 ), most of them do not appear to be at immediate risk and, therefore, we should prioritize the lowlands for implementing more urgent conservation measures. As plants usually exhibit large extinction debts, i.e., negative effects of invasions, climate change and landscape transformations could last for hundreds of years ( 8 , 47 , 62 , 63 ), it is crucial to preserve relict populations of rare and declining plants in the lowlands and to implement mitigation measures outside the current network of protected areas to reduce plant extinctions in the future.…”

Survival in nunatak and peripheral glacial refugia of three alpine plant species is partly predicted by altitudinal segregation

“…We selected our study species C. morettiana , P. tyrolensis and S. facchinii (Figure 1) among the species with occurrence databases from Rota et al. (2022). The selected species had to match the following criteria.…”

Climate change impacts on Mediterranean vegetation are amplified at low altitudes

“…However, studies from high altitude and latitude areas highlight that vegetation changes might be slow compared to changes in abiotic and other biotic factors (Alexander et al, 2018; Elmendorf et al, 2012; Løkken et al, 2020; Virtanen et al, 2010; Vittoz et al, 2009; Wilson & Nilsson, 2009). Soil and terrain patterns can slow down the impacts of global climate change locally (Finocchiaro et al, 2022; Graae et al, 2018; Rota et al, 2022; Scherrer & Körner, 2011) and successional or trophic changes as well as spatial connectivity can further complicate migration patterns, with up‐ and downward shifts of plant distributions (Lenoir, Gégout, Guisan, et al, 2010; Merle et al, 2020). Increased droughts in lowland areas might favour xerophytic species (Liu et al, 2017), a ‘xerophytization’ with different dynamics and patterns than thermophilization, notably in the much less studied Mediterranean areas (Pauli et al, 2012).…”