Tourism-Led Economic Growth Hypothesis - An Empirical Investigation for Serbia

Stančić, Branislava Hristov; Đorđević, Aleksandar; Kovačević, Igor; Zečević, Bojan

doi:10.22190/teme210217014h

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…First, tourism leads to the economic growth (TLEG) hypothesis, considering that tourism affects economic growth. Some studies validating this hypothesis are: Fahimi et al (2018) for Barbados, Cuba, Cyprus, the Dominican Republic, Fiji, Haiti, Iceland, Malta, Mauritius, and Trinidad and Tobago; Zhu & He (2021) for 29 provinces of China; Pegkas (2020) for Greece; Wijijayanti (2021) for eight countries in Southeast Asia; and Hristov-Stančić et al (2022) for Serbia.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 96%

Economic growth, tourism, and economic policy uncertainty in the main tourist destinations (1998-2018)

Gómez,

Cándano

2023

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Objective: to study the relationship among tourism demand and economic growth, real exchange rate, and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Australia, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Methodology: cross-section dependence, unit root, and cointegration tests were applied. The long-term model was estimated according to the Panel-Corrected Standard Error (PCSE), Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS), and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS). Results: the results show a positive relationship between economic growth and the real exchange rate concerning tourism demand. In the long term, the causality relationship is from uncertainty, exchange rate, and GDP to tourism. The feedback hypothesis is validated. Limitations: availability of data.Originality: it studies the joint influence of economic growth and the EPU on demand for tourism in the countries of the world’s leading destinations for international tourism according to international tourist income. Conclusions: tourism will drive general economic growth and, correspondingly, investment in other sectors of the economy will also influence an increase in tourism.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 96%

Economic growth, tourism, and economic policy uncertainty in the main tourist destinations (1998-2018)

Gómez,

Cándano

2023

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“…(2022) indicated that tourism's contribution to economic development has been scientifically verified, and this relation can be confirmed by the Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis (TLGH). Consequently, many theoretical and empirical researchers have analyzed the relationship between tourism and economic growth (Antonakakis et al, 2019;Arslanturk et al, 2011;Bouzahzah & El Menyari, 2013;Brida et al, 2014Brida et al, , 2020Demiröz & Ongan, 2005;Gričar et al, 2021;Gunduz & Hatemi-J, 2005; Hristov Macroeconomic Stability and Fiscal Sustainability in the Republic of Serbia Stančić et al, 2022;Kadir & Karim, 2012;Khan et al, 2020;Kim et al, 2006;Lean & Tang, 2010;Lee & Chang, 2008;Lee, 2021;Mirović et al, 2021;Perles-Ribes et al, 2017;Pratt, 2015;Shahzad et al, 2017;Sokhanvar et al, 2018;Songling et al, 2019;Tafel & Szolnoki, 2020;Wu & Wu, 2018;Wu et al, 2022). If the mentioned studies are briefly analyzed, Demiröz and Ongan (2005) investigated the impact of international tourism receipts on the long-run economic growth of Turkey from 1980 to 2004.…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating International Tourism Indicators in Context of Macroeconomic Stability and Fiscal Sustainability in the Republic of Serbia

Mirović,

Pavlović,

Kalaš

2022

International Thematic Monograph: Modern Management Tools and Economy of Tourism Sector in Present Era

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The importance of the tourism sector is manifested in the fact that this sector is one of the fastest-growing sectors worldwide. This re- search aims to determine the impact of tourism indicators on the macro- economic and fiscal framework. The subject of the paper includes estimating the effect of international tourism arrivals and international tourism receipts on economic growth, unemployment and fiscal sustainability in the Republic of Serbia for the period 2002-2020. The obtained empirical results show that international tourism categories significantly improve macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability in the Republic of Serbia for the observed period. Based on the empirical findings, policymakers should focus on increasing international tourist arrivals as well as increasing international tourism receipts to provide positive implications for the economic development of our country.

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“…The effects of the tourism sector on economic growth have been referred to in the literature as the tourism-led growth hypothesis. Research on the tourism-led growth hypothesis is still up to date (Adedoyin et al , 2022; Balsalobre-Lorente et al , 2021; Brida et al , 2016; Hristov Stančić et al , 2022; Onifade et al, 2022 ; Song and Wu, 2022; Tecel et al , 2020). However, how much employment is created by the economic growth effect created by the tourism sector is also an important research question.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the relationship between employment and tourism: a fresh evidence from the ARDL bounds test with sharp and smooth breaks

Yılancı

Kırca²

2023

JHTI

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PurposeThis study aims to investigate the effect of the tourism sector on employment in 13 Mediterranean countries. In addition, the impact of economic growth and inflation rate, which are included in the analysis as control variables, on the employment rate are investigated.Design/methodology/approachFor this study, data from 1995 to 2018 and the ratio of the employed population, the number of international tourist arrivals, the annual growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) and the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) were used. First, the authors investigated the relationship between variables using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test with Sharp and Smooth Breaks. Then, after determining the significant cointegration relationship, the long-term and short-term coefficients were also estimated.FindingsThe results show a cointegration relationship for Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Malta and Tunisia. Tourism demand has a positive effect on all these countries and economic growth positively affects the employment rate only in Greece, Israel and Tunisia. Besides, the inflation rate has a negative effect in Israel and Tunisia and a positive effect in Malta. Overall, the authors' results provide important policy suggestions, such as the training of the employees in the tourism sector should be improved to keep up with the requirements of the times.Practical implicationsThe impact of the tourism sector on total employment varies from country to country. In particular, the employment creation policies of the sector need to be changed by taking technological changes into consideration.Originality/valueSince tourism is a labor-intensive sector, tourism's impact on employment is an important research topic. However, whether this effect applies to all countries is debatable. Furthermore, the development of technology can also reduce employment in labor-intensive sectors. Therefore, this research can be regarded as important as this research addresses such a critical current issue and suggests a novel econometric method such as the ARDL Bounds Test with Sharp and Smooth Breaks.

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Tourism-Led Economic Growth Hypothesis - An Empirical Investigation for Serbia

Cited by 3 publications

References 24 publications

Economic growth, tourism, and economic policy uncertainty in the main tourist destinations (1998-2018)

Economic growth, tourism, and economic policy uncertainty in the main tourist destinations (1998-2018)

Estimating International Tourism Indicators in Context of Macroeconomic Stability and Fiscal Sustainability in the Republic of Serbia

Testing the relationship between employment and tourism: a fresh evidence from the ARDL bounds test with sharp and smooth breaks

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