Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models

The influence of terrorism in tourism arrivals: A longitudinal approach in a Mediterranean country

“…Tourism demand, as previously established, is particularly sensitive to terrorist attacks, since tourists' choices value safety, tranquility and peace (Araña & León, 2008). Past research has repeatedly proved the strong exposure of tourism industry to terrorism and violence and showed that tourism is one of the economic sectors that are most vulnerable to this threat (Araña & Leon, 2008;Avraham, 2015;Lanouar & Goaied, 2019;Saha & Yap, 2014). Several studies have proved its negative impacts on tourism activity as a whole in the short and long term (Araña & León, 2008;Baker, 2014;Liu & Pratt, 2017;Pizam & Smith, 2000;Sönmez, 1998).…”

“…Those risks are associated with three travel dimensions: vacation risk, physical-equipment risk and destination risk. Focusing specifically on the risk factors connected with tourism destinations, subsequent research drew attention to more specific issues such as: i) health: factors that may cause physical danger, injury or sickness (Baker, 2014;Jonas, Mansfeld, Paz, & Potasman, 2011); ii) communication: language and communication barriers that may hinder the connections with locals or service providers (Reisinger & Mavondo, 2005); iii) natural disasters: the exposure to natural hazards (Becken & Hughey, 2013;Pearlman & Melnik, 2008); iv) crime: several forms of criminality and physical violence (Brunt, Mawby, & Hambly, 2000;Chesney-Lind & Lind, 1986;Dimanche & Leptic, 1999;Michalko, 2004); v) political instability and violence (Fletcher & Morakabati, 2008;Ioannides & Apostolopoulos, 1999;Saha & Yap, 2014;Sönmez, 1998;Yap & Saha, 2013); and vi) terrorism: probability of being involved in a terrorist attack (Baker, 2014;Lanouar & Goaied, 2019;Saha & Yap, 2014;Seabra et al, 2014).…”

“…Terrorism has become an important and recurring topic in the public discourse over the last decades due to the increased frequency of terrorist attacks witnessed (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, 2019). Since the beginning of the century, and particularly over the last 10 years, several developed and stable countries have witnessed high levels of terrorist events (Lanouar & Goaied, 2019). New York, United States (2001), Madrid andBarcelona, Spain (2004, 2017), London andManchester, United Kingdom (2005, 2017), Tuusula, Finland (2007), Apeldoorn, Netherlands (2009), Utoya, Norway (2011), Paris and Nice, France (2015, Brussels, Belgium (2016), Sousse, Tunisia (2015), Berlin, Germany (2016), Istanbul, Turkey (2016, Christchurch, New Zealand (2019), Colombo, Sri Lanka (2019) were some of the places that have experienced terrorist attacks, but the list goes on (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, 2019).…”

“…Tourism is one of the most global economic activities and is, therefore, vulnerable to risks that affect any other global business (Fennell, 2017). The world has become interdependent and tourism crises in one part of the world can have strong repercussions on other locations (Lanouar & Goaied, 2019;Ritchie, 2004). When tourists realize that a destination is unsafe, they replace it with others they consider safer and, in doing so, may damage entire regions that are affected by violence or that tourists consider threatened by terrorism (Beirman, 2003;Gu & Martin, 1992;Lutz & Lutz, 2018;Mansfeld, 1996;Sönmez, 1998).…”

“…The topic of terrorism spillover effects has produced a considerable amount of literature (Veréb, Nobre, & Farhangmehr, 2018). The decline in tourists' arrivals and receipts caused by terrorism is well documented in several countries and regions since the 90s and has affected countries like Spain (Enders & Sandler, 1991), European countries ( (Enders, Sandler, & Parise, 1992;Radić, Dragičević, & Sotošek, 2018), the Mediterranean region (Drakos & Kutan, 2003), non-democratic countries and Africa (Blomberg, Hess, & Orphanides, 2004), the USA (Bonham, Edmonds, & Mak, 2006;Goodrich, 2002), Israel (Eckstein & Tsiddon, 2004;Fleisher & Buccola, 2002;Morag, 2006;Pizam & Fleischer, 2002), Italy (Greenbaum & Hultquist, 2006), Nepal (Baral, Baral, & Nigel, 2004), Ireland (O'Connor, Stafford, & Gallagher, 2008), Fiji and Kenya (Fletcher & Morakabati, 2008), Nigeria (Adora, 2010); Turkey (Feridun, 2011;Ozsoy & Sahin, 2006), Pakistan (Raza & Jawaid, 2013), the Middle East (Bassil, 2014), the Caribbean (Lutz & Lutz, 2018), Tunisia (Lanouar & Goaied, 2019), and worlwide (Liu & Pratt, 2017;Llorca-Vivero, 2008;Neumayer & Plümper, 2016).…”