Toward analyzing meteorological droughts in western Iran: a multivariate approach based on vine copulas

Jahannemaei, Neshat; Khosravinia, Payam; Hadi, Syamsul; Mirabbasi, Rasoul

doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05747-4

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 81 publications

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“…In recent years, the introduction of copula in drought research has advanced the field of probabilistic drought modeling [21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. For instance, Yang et al [21] developed a Bayesian copula method using multiple GCMs to generate reliable ensemble projections of drought risk.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a random-forest-copula-factorial analysis (RFCFA) method for predicting propagation between meteorological and hydrological drought

Wang,

Li,

Huang

et al. 2024

NSO

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In the context of global climate warming, the propagation of meteorological drought (MD) may aggravate the devastating impact of hydrological drought (HD) on water security and sustainable development. There are challenges in accurately predicting the propagation of drought and effectively quantifying the effects of uncertainty, especially in datadeficient regions. In this study, a novel method called RFCFA is developed through integrating random forest (RF), copula, and factorial analysis (FA) into a general framework as well as applied to the Aral Sea Basin (a typical arid and data-scarce basin in Central Asia) under considering the impact of climate change. Several findings can be summarized: (1) the projected future drought propagation probability of ASB is 39.2%, which is about 8% higher than historical level; (2) drought propagation is mainly affected by mean climate condition, catchment characteristics (i.e., elevation, LUCC, and slope), and human activities (i.e., irrigation and reservoir operation); (3) the lower propagation probability in spring is expected under SSP1-2.6 due to increased snow meltwater, and the drought propagation probability in autumn is the highest (reaching 45.4%) under the influence of reservoir operation; (4) the combined effects of meteorological conditions and agricultural irrigation can lead to a higher probability of future propagation in the upper river basin in summer. Findings are valuable for predicting drought propagation risk, revealing main factors and inherent uncertainties, as well as providing support for drought management and disaster prevention.

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