Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: Embedding PnET within LANDIS-II

Bruijn, Arjan de; Gustafson, Eric J.; Sturtevant, Brian R.; Foster, Jane R.; Miranda, Brian R.; Lichti, Nathanael I.; Jacobs, Douglass F.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.05.004

Cited by 82 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Steps in the development of a landscape model (LM) that simulates climate, vegetation, and disturbance interactions. The numbers identify the task within the major questions detailed in Table 1. A mechanistic approach is critical for modeling interactions because the driving processes in most mechanistic models, such as weather and climate, are overarching inputs for the biophysical algorithms in LMs and other models (de Bruijn et al, 2014). For example, temperature is a critical input to algorithms representing the processes that determine plant growth, namely photosynthesis and respiration.…”

Section: Use a Mechanistic Approach Where Feasiblementioning

confidence: 99%

“…To be effective at predicting climate change effects realistically, LMs must, at a minimum, simulate the core ecosystem dynamics of disturbance, vegetation, and biogeochemistry as they respond to environmental drivers (i.e., climate variability), and must also simulate their interactions across multiple scales (see Fig. 1 for example) (Bachelet et al, 2000;Purves and Pacala, 2008;de Bruijn et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models

Keane

McKenzie

Falk

et al. 2015

Ecological Modelling

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Section: Use a Mechanistic Approach Where Feasiblementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models

Keane

McKenzie

Falk

et al. 2015

Ecological Modelling

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“…To accomplish this goal, we limited and simplified the many complex ecological processes and their interactions that will ultimately determine future forest composition and distribution. For instance, our model relied on simple age-based competition for light resources, rather than more complex growth-based competition for multiple resources (e.g., de Bruijn et al 2014), and the direct effects of climate on mortality (e.g., drought) were not considered. Moreover, we did not create definitive climate niche models based on range-wide data for each species, and our modeled predictions should be considered within this limited regional context.…”

Section: Model Assumptions and Limits To Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Campbell

Shinneman

2017

Ecol Process

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Introduction: Climate change is expected to impose significant tension on the geographic distribution of tree species. Yet, tree species range shifts may be delayed by their long life spans, capacity to withstand long periods of physiological stress, and dispersal limitations. Wildfire could theoretically break this biological inertia by killing forest canopies and facilitating species redistribution under changing climate. We investigated the capacity of wildfire to modulate climate-induced tree redistribution across a montane landscape in the central Rocky Mountains under three climate scenarios (contemporary and two warmer future climates) and three wildfire scenarios (representing historical, suppressed, and future fire regimes). Methods: Distributions of four common tree species were projected over 90 years by pairing a climate niche model with a forest landscape simulation model that simulates species dispersal, establishment, and mortality under alternative disturbance regimes and climate scenarios. Results: Three species (Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, subalpine fir) declined in abundance over time, due to climate-driven contraction in area suitable for establishment, while one species (ponderosa pine) was unable to exploit climate-driven expansion of area suitable for establishment. Increased fire frequency accelerated declines in area occupied by Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, and subalpine fir, and it maintained local abundance but not range expansion of ponderosa pine.

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“…In urban ecosystems, it influences urban energy, water and carbon balances through its effects on plant-environmental interactions in urban green spaces (Cleugh and Grimmond 2012). PAR is thus an important input variable in numerous ecophysiological and climate models, such as in Arora (2003), De Bruijn et al (2014, Duursma and Medlyn (2012) and Mercado et al (2007). It is also widely used in remote sensing methods for estimation of gross primary productivity (Schlesinger and Bernhardt 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Photosynthetically active radiation and comparison of methods for its estimation in equatorial Singapore

Tan

Ismail

2015

Theor Appl Climatol

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Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) is an important input variable for urban climate, crop modelling and ecosystem services studies. Despite its importance, only a few empirical studies have been conducted on PAR, its relationship to global solar radiation and sky conditions and its estimation in the tropics. We report in this study, the characterisation of PAR in Singapore through direct measurements and development of models for its estimation using input variables of global solar radiation (H), photometric radiation (L), clearness index (k t ) and sky view factor (SVF). Daily PAR showed a good correlation with daily H and had a comparatively small seasonal variation in PAR due to Singapore's equatorial position. The ratio of PAR to H (PAR/H) showed a slight depression in midyear from May to August, which correlated well with seasonal patterns in rainfall over the study period. Hourly PAR/H increased throughout the day. Three empirical models developed in this study were able to predict daily PAR satisfactorily, with the most accurate model being one which included both H and k t as independent variables. A regression model for estimation of PAR under shaded conditions using SVF produced satisfactory estimation of daily PAR but was prone to high mean percentage error at low PAR levels.

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Toward more robust projections of forest landscape dynamics under novel environmental conditions: Embedding PnET within LANDIS-II

Cited by 82 publications

References 48 publications

Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models

Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models

Potential influence of wildfire in modulating climate-induced forest redistribution in a central Rocky Mountain landscape

Photosynthetically active radiation and comparison of methods for its estimation in equatorial Singapore

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