Toward reassessing data‐deficient species

Bland, Lucie M.; Bielby, Jon; Kearney, Stephen G.; Orme, C. David L.; Watson, James; Collen, Ben

doi:10.1111/cobi.12850

Cited by 85 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Every sixth species currently featured on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is classified as data deficient. Lack of knowledge and erroneous estimates of real species status hinder effective conservation measures (Bland et al, ), and the present example highlights the severe risk facing the Danube streber, which could easily be overlooked if careful monitoring with suitable methods is not carried out. Freshwater systems are home to a very large proportion of cryptic and inconspicuous species, which are often severely threatened by human shaping of surface waters, but whose plight often remains unnoticed.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

River damming drives population fragmentation and habitat loss of the threatened Danube streber (Zingel streber): Implications for conservation

Brinker

Chucholl²,

Behrmann‐Godel

et al. 2018

Aquatic Conservation

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1. The Danube streber, Zingel streber, is a threatened and data-deficient percid fish endemic to the Danube catchment. The study provides the first data on distribution, life history, and genetic structure of the species at the upstream limit of its historic distribution (south-western Germany). A 3-year surveyeffort with 143 fishing events identified several small, fragmentary populations covering only 7% of the historical range of the species. Census population sizes (N c ) of these subpopulations were estimated from mark-recapture data at <200 individuals. Effective population sizes (N e ), calculated from genetic data (microsatellite genotyping), were much smaller still, at <15 individuals, resulting in an N c /N e ratio of <0.25, strongly indicating that populations are seriously affected by genetic drift and inbreeding, and are thus facing a severe extinction risk. 3. Life-history parameters recorded during the study indicate a rapid life cycle, with both sexes probably attaining sexual maturity at the age of 1 year or older. Spawning commenced at the beginning of April and fecundity was low (~300-400 eggs per female). 4. Genetic analysis and mark-recapture data indicate that subpopulations of the streber live in effective isolation, separated by impassable weirs that significantly reduce genetic connectivity between subpopulations. 5. The species is rheophilic, and limited to sites with flow velocities of~0.7 m s -1 . Hydropower infrastructure may thus also have diminished the availability of suitable habitat by reducing flow rates. 6. Only 32% of the historical range of the Danube streber is now estimated to be morphologically suitable for the species. Furthermore, relevant parts of this range are located upstream of dams and are therefore not accessible for natural recolonization. 7. The availability and accessibility of suitable habitats seem to be factors limiting the size of the remaining subpopulations. 8. Conservation actions should address the restoration of degraded river habitats and increase the connectivity between isolated subpopulations of the Danube streber.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

River damming drives population fragmentation and habitat loss of the threatened Danube streber (Zingel streber): Implications for conservation

Brinker

Chucholl²,

Behrmann‐Godel

et al. 2018

Aquatic Conservation

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“…In addition, with limited funding there will undoubtedly be trade‐offs between increasing the number of plant assessments and keeping current assessments up to date (Rondinini et al ., ). A recent review of progress in achieving the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation indicated that Target 2 is unlikely to be met by 2020 (Sharrock et al ., ), highlighting the urgent need for rapid and cost‐effective assessments (Bland et al ., , ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI, ) has nationally assessed 1987 bulbous monocots and is a good candidate for further model validation. However, obtaining suitable re‐assessment data to validate extinction risk models remains a challenge (Bland et al ., ) and such validation is in itself biased and may not estimate the true accuracy of the model (Hastie et al ., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using coarse‐scale species distribution data to predict extinction risk in plants

Darrah

Bland

Bachman

et al. 2017

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Less than 6% of the worlds described plant species have been assessed on the IUCN Red List, leaving many species invisible to conservation prioritization. Large-scale Red List assessment of plant species is a challenge, as most species' ranges have only been resolved to a coarse scale. As geographic distribution is a key assessment criterion on the IUCN Red List, we evaluate the use of coarse-scale distribution data in predictive models to assess the global scale and drivers of extinction risk in an economically important plant group, the bulbous monocotyledons.Location Global.Methods Using coarse-scale species distribution data, we train a machine learning model on biological and environmental variables for 148 species assessed on the IUCN Red List in order to identify correlates of extinction risk. We predict the extinction risk of 6439 'bulbous monocot' species with the best of 13 models and map our predictions to identify potential hotspots of threat.Results Our model achieved 91% classification accuracy, with 88% of threatened species and 93% of non-threatened species accurately predicted. The model predicted 35% of bulbous monocots presently 'Not Evaluated' under IUCN criteria to be threatened and human impacts were a key correlate of threat. Spatial analysis identified some hotspots of threat where no bulbous monocots are yet on the IUCN Red List, for example central Chile.Main conclusions This is the first time a machine learning model has been used to determine extinction risk at a global scale in a species-rich plant group. As coarse-scale distribution data exist for many plant groups, our methods can be replicated to provide extinction risk predictions across the plant kingdom. Our approach can be used as a low-cost prioritization tool for targeting fieldbased assessments.

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“…The comprehensive assessment methodology prioritizes generating and updating datasets for species groups which are known to contain many threatened or near-threatened species, and there is not a bias toward specific Threats or Habitats. The number of threatened species in each Threat or Habitat class is thus a fair metric to represent the proportion of all species in those classes that are threatened (Bland et al, 2017;IUCN, 2019). Alternative metrics such as the proportion of threatened species in comprehensively assessed groups are less useful, because they misleadingly inflate the proportion of all species that are threatened, due to the preferential selection of threatened species in the comprehensive assessment process (Brummitt et al, 2015;IUCN, 2019).…”

Section: Red List Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Matches and Mismatches Between Global Conservation Efforts and Global Conservation Priorities

2019

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Species extinctions are occurring at an unprecedented rate and there is a global need to understand whether conservation effort is appropriately allocated to protect those species at risk. In this study three major measures of global conservation effort across IUCN Red List Threats and Habitats were assessed; staff time spent by the largest cluster of conservation organizations in the world-Cambridge Conservation Initiative, efforts by international NGOs through social media, and global conservation research publications since the year 2000. We find global conservation effort is generally aligned with global conservation priorities, but there are important outliers. Shrublands and rocky areas receive disproportionately little investment across all effort measures relative to the number of high extinction risk species, threats from residential and commercial development receive relatively low research and time investment despite social media attention, while marine areas and climate change receive more attention than expected. Governments and society must make critical conservation decisions in the context of rapid global change, and there is potential for key Threats or Habitats to receive less attention than required. The global conservation community would be wise to carefully consider and improve its understanding of effort-priority mismatches if the greatest number of high extinction risk species are to be protected.

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Toward reassessing data‐deficient species

Cited by 85 publications

References 28 publications

River damming drives population fragmentation and habitat loss of the threatened Danube streber (Zingel streber): Implications for conservation

River damming drives population fragmentation and habitat loss of the threatened Danube streber (Zingel streber): Implications for conservation

Using coarse‐scale species distribution data to predict extinction risk in plants

Matches and Mismatches Between Global Conservation Efforts and Global Conservation Priorities

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