Toward resilient food systems after COVID-19

Sperling, Frank; Havlík, Petr; Michel, Denis; Valin, Hugo; Palazzo, Amanda; Gaupp, Franziska; Visconti, Piero

doi:10.1016/j.crsust.2021.100110

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 93 publications

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“…However, import-dependent countries like The Gambia must be prepared for potential disruptions in international trade due to tariffs, trade restrictions, or global events. Recent examples include the 2007–2008 global food crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, a major exporter of agricultural products (Ali et al, 2020 ; FAO, 2022 ; Janssens et al, 2020 ; Sperling et al, 2022 ). Climate change could also contribute to future shocks in food trade, highlighting the importance of considering the climate resilience of trading partners (Gaupp et al, 2020 ; Hadida et al, 2022 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?

Carr,

Addo,

Palazzo

et al. 2024

Food Sec.

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With rising demand for food and the threats posed by climate change, The Gambia faces significant challenges in ensuring sufficient and nutritious food for its population. To address these challenges, there is a need to increase domestic food production while limiting deforestation and land degradation. In this study, we modified the FABLE Calculator, a food and land-use system model, to focus on The Gambia to simulate scenarios for future food demand and increasing domestic food production. We considered the impacts of climate change on crops, the adoption of climate change adaptation techniques, as well as the potential of enhanced fertiliser use and irrigation to boost crop productivity, and assessed whether these measures would be sufficient to meet the projected increase in food demand. Our results indicate that domestic food production on existing cropland will not be sufficient to meet national food demand by 2050, leading to a significant supply–demand gap. However, investments in fertiliser availability and the development of sustainable irrigation infrastructure, coupled with climate change adaptation strategies like the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and optimised planting dates, could halve this gap. Addressing the remaining gap will require additional strategies, such as increasing imports, expanding cropland, or prioritising the production of domestic food crops over export crops. Given the critical role imports play in The Gambia’s food supply, it is essential to ensure a robust flow of food imports by diversifying partners and addressing regional trade barriers. Our study highlights the urgent need for sustained investment and policy support to enhance domestic food production and food imports to secure sufficient and healthy food supplies amidst growing demand and climate change challenges.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?

Carr,

Addo,

Palazzo

et al. 2024

Food Sec.

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“…Food and hunger are emphasized many times among the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), e.g., in SDG 2, SDG 6, and SDG 13 1,2 . While humanity has had unprecedented progress in eliminating and reducing hunger throughout the world, we continue to face unprecedented climatic, demographic, and agricultural resource pressures and shocks 3,4 . The future of sustainable food systems is especially critical in China, the most populous and one of the fastest developing countries in the world.…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pursuing carbon neutrality in China should enhance the resilience of its nitrogen-phosphorus coupled cycling network and also benefit food security

Luo

Kharrazi

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential nutrients for living systems and play a central role in human food systems. While N and P pathways have been investigated individually in the literature, the N-P coupled cycling network has not received sufficient attention. The coupled nature of N and P cycling networks and the importance of their resilience for the future of food and energy systems is of critical importance for sustainable development. In this avenue, we use the material flow and ecological network analysis methods to construct the N-P coupled cycling network in China and evaluate its resilience. The results show that the resilience of China’s N-P coupled cycling network decreased during the 1980–2017 period and, given China’s goal of further carbon neutrality, resilience is expected to continue decreasing throughout the study period (until 2060). Furthermore, under our clean energy scenario, the N-P coupled cycling network will have a very substantial decrease in its resilience, especially in the N layer (by 20%). China’s socio-economic system also suffers the risk of great N emissions to the environment, thus disturbing the N cycle, and amplifying the conﬂict between energy and food systems given the scarcity of P. Our findings reveal trade-offs and synergies under future anthropogenic nexus scenarios and can equip policymakers to make more informed deliberations on the management of N and P cycling networks in China, e.g., reducing fertilizer use and food waste.

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“…Resilient food systems have long been a popular topic amongst researchers, policymakers, and economic development practitioners, with a resurgence in local and regional food systems beginning 20 years ago. In the face of challenges such as population growth, increasing climactic variability, financial crises, and health crises, a multitude of recent national and international reports have emphasized the need for increased food system resilience (Harris & Spiegel, 2019;Sperling et al, 2022;Ulimwengu, et al, 2021). The COVID-19 pandemic stressed food supply chain dynamics and resilience further (Thilmany et al, 2021).…”

Section: Background and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Two essays on food manufacturer resilience: regional factors and workforce challenges

Isley¹

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Researchers and policymakers worldwide have increasingly viewed resilient food systems as important. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been particular emphasis on food manufacturer resilience. This thesis investigates factors related to food manufacturer resilience. The first study defines resilience through a workforce lens. Utilizing logit models and Firth's penalized maximum likelihood estimation, it examines what drives worker shortages. Results suggest that food manufacturing plants prioritizing training and education face reduced odds of worker shortages. Additionally, results suggest plants view automation as a way to mitigate worker shortages, but that this strategy may not be effective. The second study defines resilience through a plant survival lens. Using Cox proportional hazards models, it explores what factors are related to meat processing plant survival, particularly small- and medium-sized plant survival. Results suggest that the relationship with survival is strongest and most robust for plant characteristics. This holds especially true for small- and medium-sized processors. However, local labor market characteristics are also related to plant survival. Specifically, probability of survival is higher where the county manufacturing employment share is higher, where plants are relatively remote, and where unemployment is lower, all else being equal. Overall, the two essays examine food processor resilience in largely different contexts -- one with detailed survey data and only in Missouri, the other national with high-level plant data -- but two themes do emerge: workforce factors matter for resilience, and plant-level factors matter for resilience. Results of the two essays have important implications, suggesting practices that may help both business managers as well as policymakers strengthen food manufacturer resilience.

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Toward resilient food systems after COVID-19

Cited by 8 publications

References 93 publications

Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?

Addressing future food demand in The Gambia: can increased crop productivity and climate change adaptation close the supply–demand gap?

Pursuing carbon neutrality in China should enhance the resilience of its nitrogen-phosphorus coupled cycling network and also benefit food security

Two essays on food manufacturer resilience: regional factors and workforce challenges

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