Toward the Probabilistic Simulation of Storm Surge and Inundation in a Limited-Resource Environment

Davis, Justin R.; Paramygin, Vladimir A.; Forrest, David R.; Sheng, Y. Peter

doi:10.1175/2010mwr3136.1

Cited by 25 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The benefit of this spatially integrated metric over the single-point metric (H v /H o at a given x, y location) is demonstrated by the significant spatial variability of H v /H o [Loder et al, 2009] which underscores the need for a spatially integrated vegetation dissipation potential (VDP) to quantify the impacts of vegetation on a regional scale. during hurricanes [Sheng et al, 2010a[Sheng et al, , 2010bDavis et al, 2010;Sheng and Liu, 2011]. The model includes a TKE model to represent the vegetation-induced skin friction drag and profile drag as well as the turbulence generation by the wakes behind the vegetation, by simplifying a vegetationresolving Reynolds Stress turbulence model [Lewellen and Sheng, 1980;Sheng, 1982].…”

Section: This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

The reduction of storm surge by vegetation canopies: Three‐dimensional simulations

Sheng

Lapetina

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] Significant buffering of storm surges by vegetation canopies has been suggested by limited observations and simple numerical studies, particularly following recent Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Here we simulate storm surge and inundation over idealized topographies using a threedimensional vegetation-resolving storm surge model coupled to a shallow water wave model and show that a sufficiently wide and tall vegetation canopy reduces inundation on land by 5 to 40 percent, depending upon various storm and canopy parameters. Effectiveness of the vegetation in dissipating storm surge and inundation depends on the intensity and forward speed of the hurricane, as well as the density, height, and width of the vegetation canopy. Reducing the threat to coastal vegetation from development, sea level rise, and other anthropogenic factors would help to protect many coastal regions against storm surges. Citation: Sheng, Y. P., A. Lapetina, and G. Ma (2012), The reduction of storm surge by vegetation canopies: Three-dimensional simulations, Geophys. Res.

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Section: This Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

The reduction of storm surge by vegetation canopies: Three‐dimensional simulations

Sheng

Lapetina

2012

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…To provide open boundary condition for SWAN, CH3D-SSMS uses the output of a large-scale wave model such as WaveWatch-III (Tolman 1999(Tolman , 2002. CH3D-SSMS has been used extensively to simulate storm surge and inundation due to various tropical storms including Hurricane Isabel (Sheng et al 2010a), Charley (Sheng et al 2006;Davis et al 2008Davis et al , 2010, Ivan (Sheng et al 2010b), and Wilma . Sheng and Paramygin (2010) combined the baroclinic circulation element of CH3D with CH3D-SSMS to forecast the storm surge, inundation, and 3D baroclinic circulation in northeast Florida during Tropical Storm Fay.…”

Section: Ch3d-ssms: Ch3d-based Storm Surge Modeling Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

Condon

Sheng

2011

Nat Hazards

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Coastal inundation from hurricane storm surges causes catastrophic damage to lives and property, as evidenced by recent hurricanes including Katrina and Wilma in 2005 and Ike in 2008. Changes in hurricane activity and sea level due to a warming climate, together with growing coastal population, are expected to increase the potential for loss of property and lives. Current inundation hazard maps: Base Flood Elevation maps and Maximum of Maximums are computationally expensive to create in order to fully represent the hurricane climatology, and do not account for climate change. This paper evaluates the coastal inundation hazard in Southwest Florida for present and future climates, using a high resolution storm surge modeling system, CH3D-SSMS, and an optimal storm ensemble with multivariate interpolation, while accounting for climate change. Storm surges associated with the optimal storms are simulated with CH3D-SSMS and the results are used to obtain the response to any storm via interpolation, allowing accurate representation of the hurricane climatology and efficient generation of hazard maps. Incorporating the impact of anticipated climate change on hurricane and sea level, the inundation maps for future climate scenarios are made and affected people and property estimated. The future climate scenarios produce little change to coastal inundation, due likely to the reduction in hurricane frequency, except when extreme sea level rise is included. Calculated coastal inundation due to sea level rise without using a coastal surge model is also determined and shown to significantly overestimate the inundation due to neglect of land dissipation.

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“…Understanding this uncertainty is essential as unrealistic expectations of accuracy can result in the misinterpretations of flood risk, with profound implications [Brown and Damery, 2002;Hall and Solomatine, 2008]. For this reason, many operational forecasting systems and risk assessments provide probabilistic predictions in an attempt to explicitly account for known uncertainties in the modeling approach used [e.g., Purvis et al, 2008;Bocquet et al, 2009;Pappenberger and Beven, 2006;Davis et al, 2010;Kim et al, 2010].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the temporal variability in extreme storm‐tide time series for coastal flood risk assessment

et al. 2014

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The probability of extreme storm-tide events has been extensively studied; however, the variability within the duration of such events and implications to flood risk is less well understood. This research quantifies such variability during extreme storm-tide events (the combined elevation of the tide, surge, and their interactions) at 44 national tide gauges around the UK. Extreme storm-tide events were sampled from water level measurements taken every 15 min between 1993 and 2012. At each site, the variability in elevation at each time step, relative to a given event peak, was quantified. The magnitude of this time series variability was influenced both by gauge location (and hence the tidal and nontidal residual characteristics) and the time relative to high water. The potential influence of this variability on coastal inundation was assessed across all UK gauge sites, followed by a detailed case study of Portsmouth. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Portsmouth region was used to demonstrate that given a current 1 in 200 year stormtide event, the predicted number of buildings inundated differed by more than 30% when contrasting simulations forced with the upper and lower bounds of the observed time series variability. The results indicate that variability in the time series of the storm-tide event can have considerable influence upon overflow volumes, hence with implications for coastal flood risk assessments. Therefore, further evaluating and representing this uncertainty in future flood risk assessments is vital, while the envelopes of variability defined in this research provides a valuable tool for coastal flood modelers.

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Toward the Probabilistic Simulation of Storm Surge and Inundation in a Limited-Resource Environment

Cited by 25 publications

References 29 publications

The reduction of storm surge by vegetation canopies: Three‐dimensional simulations

The reduction of storm surge by vegetation canopies: Three‐dimensional simulations

Evaluation of coastal inundation hazard for present and future climates

Assessing the temporal variability in extreme storm‐tide time series for coastal flood risk assessment

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