Throughout human history, the capacity to invent, manufacture, and use chemicals and materials has transformed concepts of development with path-dependent solutions to problems encountered in various industrial and societal sectors, including energy, transportation, food production, textiles, and personal care. It is increasingly clear that the trajectory of development initiated by some path-breaking materials is not sustainable. Recent developments in the concept of planetary boundaries have explored some reasons for unsustainability and ineffectiveness of current chemicals management practices. The reasons are almost always due to previously unknown chemical characteristics such as toxicity, reactivity, environmental recalcitrance, or increasing scarcity. In some cases, the suspected but ignored potential hazard of chemicals manifests slowly or becomes uncontrollable due to accumulation and biochemical or physical transformation in the environment. Consequently, environmental pollution by such chemicals is associated with alarmingly high levels of human mortality and disease burden worldwide. Recent examples include halogenated chemicals used as flame retardants and the thinning of the stratospheric ozone layer; bisphenol A used in plastics and microplastics widespread in biotic and abiotic ecosystem components, including the ocean; hormone mimicking chemicals such as phthalates in human tissues; neurotoxicity of lead used in solder materials, paints, and water distribution pipes; neurodevelopmental diseases associated with mercury used in ore beneficiation, in dental amalgams and lighting systems; and asbestos fibers used in ceiling tiles, roofs, and automobile brakes. These notorious examples have forced the introduction of retroactive policies to restrict the use of certain chemicals in materials development, and a few proactive policies designed to prevent the initial use of certain chemicals known or suspected to be hazardous. Improvements in the scientific knowledge and development of tools to screen for chemicals of concern have also led to the development of forecasting tools for improved management of chemicals. It could be impossible to foresee all potential risks associated with chemicals. Therefore, such management approaches can be most effective in supporting sustainable development of materials when they generate boundaries within which criteria for safety are understood and alternative assessments are continuous. This article situates the power of selected forecasting tools for early warning systems in a planetary boundary framework while highlighting gaps and incongruencies inherent in their use to support proactive and reactive regulatory policies, and for developing performance standards for lowering the chemical footprint of consumer products.
Graphical Abstract