Towards a Semi-Quantitative Approach for Assessing Evacuation Scenarios in the Context of Popocatépetl Volcano, México—The Case of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan

Abstract

Volcanic exposure implies multiple hazards for human settlements. The identification of the potential hazards that volcanic activity can entail is a challenge requiring assessing the specific situations that a determined place would face. Popocatépetl, a volcano in the centre of México, represents a significant hazard source, and it is located within a densely populated region with more than 20 million people. Despite the existence of a colour-based volcano alert level system for the current activity of the volcano, it is relevant to assess which local scenarios are more likely depending on numerous variables, namely, related to the distance from the volcano. A semi-quantitative analysis was carried out based on existing hazard maps and considering the probability of occurrence of volcanic explosivity, taking the settlement of San Pedro Tlalmimilulpan as a case study. This analysis led to a hierarchised rank of hazards, providing a basis for analysing multiple scenarios through failure mode and event analysis, failure tree analysis and event tree analysis. This process facilitates the contextualisation of the multiple challenges and potential chains of events that emergency actions, namely, emergency evacuations, would face. The analysis of the critical paths can help to identify critical aspects that could hinder the post-event response.

Implementing Open-Source Information Systems for Assessing and Managing the Seismic Vulnerability of Historical Constructions

“…Hence, this information is a relevant element for performing long-term urban planning and for anticipating the most vulnerable systems of a certain urban settlement. The risk analysis of the city based on the loss or interruption of some of its functions [38] is also very compatible with the workflow herein presented.…”

The Development of Health Capacity Index for a Semi-Quantitative Earthquake Hazards Risk Analysis with a Special Reference to the Lombok Earthquake Disaster 2018

“…Risk indexes have been developed in many forms, mostly based on hazard potential and vulnerability [11][12][13][14][15]. A semi-quantitative approach could be an easy and quick method for analysing hazard risks.…”

Assessing and Managing Risk in Historic Urban Areas: Current Trends and Future Research Directions

“…Furthermore, the means and methods for detecting the root causes are established, supporting a set of mitigation measures. This approach can be extended and complemented with other analysis tools, such as Failure Tree and Event Tree Analysis, which are specifically aimed to analyse a chained series of events that trigger or are triggered a determinate failure Ramírez Eudave and Ferreira (2021c).…”