Towards a theoretical framework for analyzing integrated socio-environmental systems

Widlok, Thomas; Aufgebauer, Anne; Bradtmöller, Marcel; Dikau, Richard; Hoffmann, Thomas; Kretschmer, Inga; Panagiotopoulos, Konstantinos; Pastoors, Andreas; Peters, Robin; Schäbitz, Frank; Schlummer, Manuela; Solich, Martin; Wagner, Bernd; Weniger, Gerd-Christian; Zimmermann, Andreas

doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2012.01.020

Cited by 39 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Nevertheless, investigating climate as one possible key driver is of great interest in the face of recent anthropogenic climate change (Stocker et al, 2014). Deeper insights in this field are urgently needed to assess the adaptive capacity and dynamics of current societies (Widlok et al, 2012) under global en-vironmental change within the co-evolving planetary socioenvironmental system (Schellnhuber, 1998(Schellnhuber, , 1999.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5-7.9, 5.7-5.0, 4.1-3.7, and 3.0-2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0-1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

et al. 2015

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“…Zlinszky and G. Timár: Historic maps as a data source for socio-hydrology Arnell, 2006;Rice et al, 2010;Gilvear, 1999;James, 1999;Endreny, 2001;Widlok et al, 2012). From a human perspective, everyone has a right to safe drinking water and sanitation, and ensuring this under global climate change is a challenge for aquatic sciences (United Nations, 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The ever increasing human impact on the water cycle combined with the important role of water as a resource in forming human societies has led to the paradigm that the feedback between man and water, water and natural habitats, and natural habitats and man are each bidirectional. This is the framework of socio-environmental studies (Widlok et al, 2012).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Historic maps as a data source for socio-hydrology: a case study of the Lake Balaton wetland system, Hungary

Zlinszky

Timár

2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Socio-hydrology is the science of human influence on hydrology and the influence of the water cycle on human social systems. This newly emerging discipline inherently involves a historic perspective, often focusing on timescales of several centuries. While data on human history is typically available for this time frame, gathering information on the hydrological situation during such a period can prove difficult: measured hydrological data for such long periods are rare, while models and secondary data sets from geomorphology, pedology or archaeology are typically not accurate enough over such a short time. In the first part of this study, the use of historic maps in hydrology is reviewed. Major breakthroughs were the acceptance of historic map content as valid data, the use of preserved features for investigating situations earlier than the map, and the onset of digital georeferencing and data integration. Historic maps can be primary quantitative sources of hydro-geomorphological information, they can provide a context for point-based measurements over larger areas, and they can deliver time series for a better understanding of change scenarios.In the second part, a case study is presented: water level fluctuations of Lake Balaton were reconstructed from maps, levelling logs and other documents. An 18th century map system of the whole 5700 km 2 catchment was georeferenced, integrated with two 19th century map systems, and wetlands, forests and open water digitized. Changes in wetland area were compared with lake water level changes in a 220 yr time series. Historic maps show that the water level of the lake was closer to present-day levels than expected, and that wetland loss pre-dates drainage of the lake.The present and future role of historic maps is discussed. Historic hydrological data has to be treated with caution: while it is possible to learn form the past, the assumption that future changes will be like past changes does not always hold. Nevertheless, old maps are relatively accessible data sets and the knowledge base for using them is rapidly growing, and it can be expected that long-term time series will be established by integrating georeferenced map systems over large areas.In the Appendix, a step-by-step guide to using historic maps in hydrology is given, starting from finding a map, through georeferencing and processing the map to publication of the results.

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“…Until a few decades ago, the disciplinary division of labour and entrenched theoretical assumptions had been restricted to a situation whereby social (human) and the natural environment are investigated independently, so that human-environment interaction appears to be an afterthought and a topic for analysis at some distant point in the future Widlok et al, 2012;Liu et al, 2015b). However, global sustainability challenges have led to the realisation that most natural resource systems embedded in the planetary system, are made of complex, interconnected social, economic, and environmental subsystems (Cornell et al, 2012;Liu et al, 2015b;Steffen et al, 2015).…”

Section: Social-ecological System Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Hinkel et al (2014) whenever empirical analysis encompasses many variables, as in typically the case for SESs, it is usually imperative to organise the variables according to their meaning. In this light, this study modified and used the Social-Ecological System framework developed by Chapin et al (2006) By framing the Volta River basin as a coupled SES, this study ultimately contributes to a research perspective that integrates human agency and environmental factors in a single explanatory model (Widlok et al, 2012). Despite the paramount value of the SESF to study coupled SESs like the Volta River Basin, it does not provide specific tools to model the relationship between the key system variables, particularly the dynamic feedback mechanisms that is produced because of the complex interactions between the system variables.…”

Section: Social-ecological System Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systems thinking and modelling for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, West Africa

Kotir¹

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It is well established that the conventional approaches to understanding and managing natural resource systems such as the traditional linear-reductionist and mechanistic approach founded on a positivistic understanding of science do not provide a sufficient framework for understanding the dynamic complexity and growing uncertainties inherent in most environmental systems. Dynamic complexity arises because such systems are: tightly coupled (components or drivers of the system interact with one another); governed by feedback; nonlinear; history dependent (making a choice precludes other options and determines the destiny); adaptive (decision rules change over time); counterintuitive (cause and effect are distant in time and space); and policy resistant. Despite the recognition of these complexities, there is still a lack of dynamic models that adequately integrate various physical, social, and economic factors and feedback processes that determine the current and future dynamics of most Social-ecological systems such as water resources management systems. There is, therefore, the need for an integrated system dynamics simulation model that adequately captures the non-linear interactions and feedback effects between the key system drivers to improve our understanding of the dynamic behaviour of water resource systems and evaluate the effects of different policy and management scenarios.The overall aim of this research was to develop computer-based integrated conceptual, dynamic and simulation models that can be used to support decision-making for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin in West Africa. To this end, a systems-based/systems thinking approach was used as the theoretical framework. Systems dynamics approach grounded in the relativistic, holistic/pragmatist philosophical or methodological paradigm provided an appropriate modelling tool to capture the relationships between the key system variables and their dynamic behaviour over time. Overall, a three-tied research plan (mixed methods approach) was employed. A comprehensive literature review, structured expert judgement/surveys and interviews were used to explore and identify the key system drivers, factors, and processes that influence the sustainability of the river basin system. A participatory modelling approach was employed where the system expert stakeholders from academia, NGOs, government, and private consultants were engaged in developing an integrated qualitative conceptual model that described the causal systemic feedback processes operating between the biophysical, environmental, and socio-economic drivers of the system. Based on the conceptual model, a formal quantitative simulation model was then developed using a system dynamics simulation approach, allowing different policy scenarios and strategies to be identified and tested. Besides the baseline or business as usual scenario, three additional policy scenarios were designed and simulated to explore ii alternative futures, incl...

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Towards a theoretical framework for analyzing integrated socio-environmental systems

Cited by 39 publications

References 22 publications

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns

Historic maps as a data source for socio-hydrology: a case study of the Lake Balaton wetland system, Hungary

Systems thinking and modelling for sustainable water resources management and agricultural development in the Volta River Basin, West Africa

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