Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species

Abstract

In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the scale of ecological and economic consequences associated with non-indigenous species in North America and elsewhere. Assessments of risks and impacts remain difficult due to complexities and interactions between the many factors driving invasions and outcomes. These processes occur across various spatial and temporal scales, and are often influenced and complicated by human activities. For each component of an ecological invasion (i.e., arrival, establishment, and spread), we review general approaches for modelling the phenomenon and identify data and knowledge gaps. With the greater availability of various spatial data and computational power we suggest the possibility of linking the models for each invasion component into a more integrated framework, thus allowing interactions and feedbacks between components to be better incorporated into risk modelling efforts. The approach is illustrated using examples from current work with Sirex noctilio Fabricius — a relatively new invasive wood wasp in eastern North America.

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

“…Moreover, preventive measures such as the use of cultivar mixtures in fields and the preservation of tree species diversity in forests are still likely to make sense also in the presence of novel climates (Finckh and Wolfe 1996;Garrett and Mundt 1999;Zhu et al 2000;Pautasso et al 2005;Bodin and Wiman 2007;Keesing et al 2010;Quijas et al 2010;Juroszek and von Tiedemann 2011). In addition, new approaches will be needed, from pest risk assessments including climate change and economic considerations (Yemshanov et al 2009), to involvement of the stakeholders for a certain plant pathosystem in the development of strategies to cope with the disease (for P. ramorum without considering climate change, Alexander and Lee 2010), from spatio-temporal analysis of known occurrences of a plant pathogen in the plant trade and the semi-natural environment ) to the use of network theory tools in targeting control and predicting climate change impacts (Araújo et al 2011;Chadès et al 2011;Moslonka-Lefebvre et al 2011). Innovative approaches in plant disease management will be required also given the likely increased importance of novel agroecosystems (e.g.…”

Integrating natural and social science perspectives on plant disease risk, management and policy formulation

“…Review of the applicability of Renn's three models in relation to plant health policy suggests that formulation in the UK has often complied with the technocratic model, with policy decisions traditionally based predominantly on advice from scientific analysis of pest risk [56,57]. The approach has not always been effective, and there are examples where reliance on a single source of authoritative advice has been associated with high profile failures, such as Dutch elm disease in Britain [18].…”

Stakeholder mapping for the governance of biosecurity: a literature review

“…Policy-making has traditionally adopted an evidence-based or 'technocratic' approach to governance that favours scientific knowledge over other forms of knowledge, relying on researchers to judge risks and make recommendations in relation to biosecurity (Yemshanov et al 2009). Similarly, there is an (often unspoken) assumption among some in the academic community that to communicate risk more effectively and change behaviour to reduce biosecurity risks, all that is required is more and better science (e.g.…”