Towards BBN based risk modelling of process plants

Systemic accident analysis models: A comparison study between AcciMap, FRAM, and STAMP

“…The Gulf of Mexico accident (2010) has highlighted a number of serious problems in scientific thinking about safety. One of these is that our current thinking about how accidents happen and all the management systems based on that approach, while reasonably successful, does not appear to enable us to achieve the goal of zero accident .…”

Introductory Chapter: Timeliness of Advantages of Bayesian Networks

“…Bayesian networks represent graphically uncertainties and decisions that expressly represent the relationships and the strengths of probabilistic dependences among the variables and the associated information flows. A chief advantage of BNs is that they allow to address uncertainties and evidence from disparate sources, such as expert judgment [4][5][6] and observable experience, being able to take into account common causes and influences of social and logistical aspects [7]. In BNs, variables and their interdependencies are encoded as nodes and directed arcs with conditional probability tables (CPTs) linked with the nodes.…”

Towards dynamic risk analysis: A review of the risk assessment approach and its limitations in the chemical process industry

“…As a starting point some hybrid-models were developed and successfully tested, for example in the framework of the operational safety program for offshore companies in Norwegian Sea, called Risk OMT (risk modelling -integration of organizational, human and technical factors) (Røed et al, 2009;Vinnem et al, 2012). In the dynamic framework, Bayesian Networks are nowadays considered to represent a promising tool, suitable to cope with complex and uncertain situations, with a graphical and easy-to-update model, which has recently gained increasing popularity in the process industry (Ale et al, 2014;Khakzad et al, 2014Khakzad et al, , 2013cPasman and Rogers, 2013).…”

“…Risk Barometer, Bayesian Nets, Graphs of Risk vs Time) ? Improved decision-making process and stakeholders' involvement during the design phase and throughout the plant lifetime (Weber et al, 2012) Integration among technical, human and organizational factors from the beginning of the design process (Ale et al, 2014). ?…”