Towards better-informed dispersal probabilities in historical biogeography: Arachnids as a model lineage

Abstract

Historical biogeography is an integrative scientific field critical for testing evolutionary hypotheses pertinent to organismal distributions, but despite recent theoretical and analytical advances, biogeographic reconstructions continue to struggle with accuracy and rigor. Most modern studies include the three elements needed for historical biogeographic inference, namely a time-calibrated phylogeny, contemporary taxonomic distributions, and estimations of organismal dispersal probabilities. The latter, we argue, are particularly vague, and historical biogeography would greatly benefit from dispersal probability estimations that are better informed and biologically meaningful. To achieve that goal, next-generation biogeography should ideally consider: a) dispersal-related traits; b) ecology; c) geological histories; and d) geographical factors. We briefly recap the three case studies on spiders that have pioneered this approach. Due to their old age and mega-diversity—considering both phylogenetic and life style diversity—arachnids are an ideal animal lineage for modern biogeographic research. There is no reason, however, that the concept should not be applied to all life. Further modifications of the proposed concept and, particularly, methodological implementation are needed to render this biogeographic framework widely useful.

Grand challenges in research on arachnid diversity, conservation, and biogeography

“…record of ballooning in spiders. Better estimations of dispersal propensities will improve the discipline (Kuntner and Turk, 2022). Thus, the role of arachnids in understanding local and global biogeographical patterns as they reflect the interplay between dispersal and vicariance will likely continue to grow.…”

The seven grand challenges in arachnid science

“…At the same time, next-generation biogeography should improve on the accuracy of analytical tools. Kuntner and Turk (2022) argue that among the elements needed for historical biogeographic inference, the estimations of organismal dispersal probabilities are particularly vague, representing the bottle neck in historical biogeography. Their appeal for dispersal probability estimations that are better informed and biologically meaningful has so far only been tested on spiders (Turk et al, 2020;Turk et al, 2021;Magalhaes and Ramirez (2022)).…”

“…Their appeal for dispersal probability estimations that are better informed and biologically meaningful has so far only been tested on spiders (Turk et al, 2020;Turk et al, 2021;Magalhaes and Ramirez (2022)). If the better devised estimations of dispersal probability are accepted by this community, then perhaps arachnids will be established as the model lineage of choice for applications of the next-generation biogeography (Kuntner and Turk, 2022).…”