Towards improved participatory scenario methodologies in the Arctic

Abstract

Participatory scenario methodologies are increasingly used for studying possible future developments in the Arctic. They have the potential to contribute to several high-priority tasks for Arctic research, such as integration of indigenous and local knowledge in futures studies, providing a platform for activating Arctic youth in shaping their futures, identifying Arctic-relevant indicators for sustainable development, and supporting decision-making towards sustainable futures. Yet, to achieve this potential, several methodological challenges need to be addressed. These include attention to whose voices are amplified or silenced in participatory research practices, with special attention to diversification and the engagement of youth. Given the historic and potential future role of disruptive events for Arctic development trajectories, methods are needed in participatory scenario exercises to include attention to the dynamics and consequences of such events and regime shifts. Participatory scenarios can also be further improved through approaches that effectively combine qualitative and quantitative information. Finally, there is a need for systematic studies of how the results of scenario exercises influence decision-making processes. This article elaborates on ways in which attention to these aspects can help make scenarios more robust for assessing a diversity of potential Arctic futures in times of rapid environmental and social change.

Making Regional Sense of Global Sustainable Development Indicators for the Arctic

“…This is also in line with Arctic sustainability research, where quality participation by local communities and co-production of knowledge are increasingly emphasized [22]. Participatory approaches are also increasingly used in developing scenarios of potential future change in the Arctic [36]. Our own work in this field includes a combined bottom-up identification of locally relevant drivers of change with discussion about how these might play out in different potential global futures based on the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that are used for the IPCCs scenarios [23].…”

“…As pointed out in the EU-PolarNet White paper, such processes are critical for making the SDGs relevant on the ground [14]. Even more important is that participatory processes related to the SDGs could provide spaces for learning and local capacity building for navigating rapid environmental and social change, similar to what has been shown with participatory scenario processes [36,91]. While this may be especially relevant in a region such as the Arctic, with a history of outsiders imposing their priorities and narratives about desirable futures on people living there, it is likely to be relevant across the world, as many decisions that will affect whether the SDGs will be achieved are made at the local and county levels of governance and by private actors (businesses as well as individuals).…”

The voices of youth in envisioning positive futures for nature and people

“…Through this work we have made a first step towards including youth voices in envisioning a better world, which also feeds into the ongoing IPBES work on scenarios and modelling. Imagining more positive futures and steering institutions to pursue them is a powerful tool to engage youth in shaping the future of their societies (Nilsson et al 2019). Geographical and gender balance, the inclusion of a broad range of disciplines, worldviews, and knowledge systems, as well as representation from indigenous peoples and local communities, are increasingly recognized as crucial in sustainability initiatives (Turnhout et al 2012;Tengö et al 2014;Lim et al 2017).…”

“…There are currently few futures-orientated approaches that include diverse perspectives and values (Sharpe et al 2016) and even fewer that involve youth (Nilsson et al 2019). Younger generations are also still insufficiently integrated into science-policy and decision-making arenas in general (Lim et al 2017).…”

Matching societal knowledge demand, research funding and scientific knowledge supply: trends and co-creation dynamics around reindeer management in Finland

“…Co-creation approaches to connect science, policy and society have boomed recently and applied also to Arctic areas (Armitage et al, 2011;Nilsson et al, 2019). The science-policysociety literature often focuses on criticizing the linear model where scientists should speak truth to power (Hoppe, 1999;Young et al, 2014), but rarely addresses variations by which co-creation can take place.…”