Towards leprosy elimination by 2020: forecasts of epidemiological indicators of leprosy in Corrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina that is a pioneer in leprosy elimination

Abstract

BACKGROUNDCorrientes, a province of northeastern Argentina with endemic leprosy, has improved its epidemiological indicators, however, a study of the dynamics over time is lacking.OBJECTIVESWe analysed data of 1308 leprosy patients between 1991 to 2014, and the forecast for 2020.METHODSDescriptive statistics and stepwise Bayesian model selection were performed. Forecasts were made using the median of 100,000 projections using the parameters calculated via Monte Carlo methods.RESULTSWe found a decreasing number of new leprosy cases (-2.04 cases/year); this decrease is expected to continue by an estimated 20.28 +/- 10.00 cases by 2020, evidenced by a sustained decline in detection rate (from 11 to 2.9/100,000 inhabitants). Age groups that were most affected were 15-44 (40.13%) and 45-64 (38.83%) year olds. Multibacillary forms (MB) predominated (70.35%) and while gradually declining, between 10 and 30% developed disability grade 2 (DG2) (0.175 (0.110 - 0.337) DG2/MB cases), with a time delay between 0 to 15 years (median = 0). The proportion of MB clinic forms and DG2 increased and will continuously increase in the short term (0.036 +/- 0.018 logit (MB/total of cases).MAIN CONCLUSIONSCorrientes is on the way to eliminating leprosy by 2020, however the increased proportion of MB clinical forms and DG2 signals a warning for disease control efforts.

Measuring endemicity and burden of leprosy across countries and regions: A systematic review and Delphi survey

“…23 from Brazil [ 11 – 33 ], 6 from India [ 34 – 39 ], 3 from China [ 40 – 42 ], 2 from Bangladesh [ 2 , 43 ] and Comoros [ 44 , 45 ]. One from Cambodia [ 46 ], Sri-Lanka [ 47 ], Cameroon [ 48 ], Venezuela [ 49 ], Bangladesh and Thailand [ 50 ], Indonesia [ 51 ], Argentina [ 52 ], and Uganda [ 53 ]. Three publications focussed on the global leprosy burden.…”

“…Two studies only mentioned the indicators used to classify endemicity/burden of the country of study but did not provide a classification cut-off. [ 22 , 52 ]…”

Fatores sociodemográficos associados ao grau de incapacidade física na hanseníase

“…A proporção de 13,3% (n=43) de casos novos em menores de 15 anos observada neste estudo é preocupante e superior a encontrada por outros pesquisadores [12][13]15 . Tal resultado tem importante significação epidemiológica, por denotar a precocidade da exposição ao bacilo e a transmissão ativa na comunidade, particularmente nas famílias que coabitam no mesmo domicílio 16 .…”

Forecasting Modeling Studies For Predicting New Leprosy Cases: Protocol For A Scoping Review

“…Models predicting the incidence or prevalence of cases of leprosy can facilitate the identi cation of new or undetected cases and inform health decision-making regarding the target population for treatment and disease control, and prevention actions (7). Several forecasting modeling studies of leprosy cases have been reported in the literature, however, there are distinct approaches and settings for predicting the cases (9)(10)(11)(12)(13).…”