Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Background:High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics.Objectives:The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens.Methods:We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).Results:The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.Conclusions:These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.Citation:Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166

Temporal Trends in Heat-Related Mortality: Implications for Future Projections

“…A few projection studies have made adjustments to the heat slope or MMT of the ERF to represent future conditions [50][51][52]. While in most cases, these adjustments have been made arbitrarily, a more empirical approach was recently reported by Petkova and colleagues, where the ERF in NYC was projected into future, unobserved decades by fitting and extrapolating a non-linear function to the historical trend in effects [53]. Mills and colleagues are the only authors who incorporated both heat and cold adaptation.…”

Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission

“…Past studies have estimated the future health effects of summertime ozone (Ebi and McGregor 2008, Sujaritpong et al 2014, Orru et al 2017 and high temperatures (Huang et al 2011, Sanderson et al 2017 globally, regionally, and locally, but very few have explored the long-term effects of ozone (Seltzer et al 2018), and ozone and temperatures simultaneously (Lee et al 2017). Moreover, there is limited knowledge about how other factors, such as decreases in ozone precursor emissions (Geels et al 2015 and changes in susceptible populations (Arbuthnott et al 2016, Petkova et al 2017 might affect projected health burdens.…”

It’s not the heat, it’s the vulnerability: attribution of the 2016 spike in heat-associated deaths in Maricopa County, Arizona

“…These changes have also been projected to increase heat-associated morbidity and mortality (e.g. Åström et al 2013, Kingsley et al 2016, Petkova et al 2016. However, it is unclear how reliably historical models of the temperature-health association at short time scales (days) produce estimates of variability at longer time scales (e.g.…”

“…Available evidence suggests that long-term variability may be difficult to model (Guo et al 2012). There is high uncertainty regarding the contribution of climate change as a driver of the future public health burden of heat in comparison with other factors such as population growth, demographic transition, and adaptation strategies (Hondula et al 2015, Petkova et al 2016, Gosling et al 2017. The interplay between these factors has rarely been examined retrospectively, but the limited evidence available suggests that social factors play a substantial role in influencing long-term trends in heat-associated mortality (e.g.…”