Towards participatory cross-impact balance analysis: Leveraging morphological analysis for data collection in energy transition scenario workshops

Kurniawan, Jude Herijadi; Apergi, Maria; Eicke, Laima; Goldthau, Andreas; Lazurko, Anita; Nordemann, E.; Schuch, Esther; Sharma, Ajar; Siddhantakar, N.; Veit, K.; Weko, Silvia

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2022.102815

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…The procedure calculates both direct and indirect influences. Then, internal consistency can be assessed to purify possible combinations and unfold plausible combinations as scenarios (Kurniawan et al , 2022), which is a critical precondition for plausibility of a combination (as a possible future) (Schmidt-Scheele, 2020). As a strength, CIB can investigate both qualitative and quantitative factors because it studies the interdependencies using experts’ judgments, so researchers are allowed to set up a multidimensional study (Kurniawan et al , 2022).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Then, internal consistency can be assessed to purify possible combinations and unfold plausible combinations as scenarios (Kurniawan et al , 2022), which is a critical precondition for plausibility of a combination (as a possible future) (Schmidt-Scheele, 2020). As a strength, CIB can investigate both qualitative and quantitative factors because it studies the interdependencies using experts’ judgments, so researchers are allowed to set up a multidimensional study (Kurniawan et al , 2022). As Kurniawan et al (2022) and Schweizer (2020) mentioned, experts do not interact during the classic CIB process, whereas because scenarios (especially in complex systems such as energy-related ones) mentioned transdisciplinary research on complex social challenges (Moallemi et al , 2021; Lawrence et al , 2022), a participatory process is recommended.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Hafezi

Heirani

Akbari

et al. 2023

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Purpose In the case of Iran, about 19 years have passed since the announcement of general energy policies. Policies adopted in the past included too many approaches and goals for the energy sector that some of them are in conflict with each other and their simultaneous implementation was impossible. Therefore, many of the expected goals of these policies have not been achieved. It is very important to adopt an appropriate approach that is compatible with the country’s characteristics and can steer energy policies. Therefore, this study aims to adopt an appropriate approach for the country’s energy sector according to the conditions and needs of the country. Design/methodology/approach A participatory scenario technique is designed and used to develop plausible projections in the case of Iran’s energy futures. Based on the proposed methodology, the research process starts with data gathering through interviews and national plans analysis. Then, findings were used as inputs to a simulation-based scenario development process. Scenarios are developed based on Monte Carlo simulation via cross-impact analysis technique purified based on expert judgments. Findings In this paper, to recognize Iran’s general approach to energy in the next 20 years, driving forces of change were introduced and used as input for the scenario development phase. Results showed sanctions play a significant role in Iran’s energy future and determine the directions of other driving forces. For renewable energy, it was proposed to increase the renewable share in Iran’s electricity generation mix to 5% of the total installed capacity. In the case of fossil fuel extraction, the maximum efficient rate was proposed for both oil and natural gas national production strategy. Originality/value This research is novel both in terms of application and theory. A new participatory scenario development method is used using simulations that are equipped based on experts’ judgments. Also from the practical perspective, this research targeted a future-oriented challenging problem to initialize national policy in a resource-rich developing economy (i.e. Iran).

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Hafezi

Heirani

Akbari

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Second, the validity of expert judgments (impact assessments) required by CIB studies is threatened by subjectivity and bias by nature [60,77,78]. However, we can be confident that the impact assessments in this policy-interaction model go well beyond individual experts' gut feelings, as our study design, confronting the views of local experts with those of external issue experts in small groups during online workshops, fostered the discursive validation of every impact assessment [79,80]. Therefore, it combined the advantage of expert interviews with the advantages of group discussions and supported inter-and transdisciplinary knowledge integration of local expertise and general issue expertise [81].…”

Section: Cib For Policy MIX Evaluation and Designmentioning

confidence: 94%

Addressing Goal Conflicts: New Policy Mixes for Commercial Land Use Management

Kosow

Wassermann

Bartke

et al. 2022

Land

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Commercial land use management that focuses on a future-oriented urban and regional development must address multiple goals. Effective policy mixes need to simultaneously (1) improve city-regional and inter-municipal cooperation, (2) reduce land take, and (3) assure the long-term economic development of a region. Using the Northern Black Forest in Germany as a case study, we brought together planning and land use research with public policy analysis. We applied cross-impact balances (CIB) to build and analyze a participatory policy-interaction model. Together with a group of 12 experts, we selected effective individual measures to reach each of the three goals and analyzed their interactions. We then assessed the current policy mix and designed alternative policy mixes. The results demonstrate that current approaches to commercial land use management present internal contradictions and generate only little synergies. Implementing innovative measures on a stand-alone basis runs the risk of not being sufficiently effective. In particular, the current practice of competing for municipal marketing and planning of commercial sites has inhibiting effects. We identified alternative policy mixes that achieve all three goals, avoid trade-offs, and generate significant synergy effects. Our results point towards a more coherent and sustainable city-regional (commercial) land-use governance.

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“…The research component is very important to be able to make these real changes it is linked to the generation of data (Kurniawan et al, 2022). In Bolivia, there are many environmental diagnoses carried out by universities, international cooperation, and public services.…”

Section: "Understanding" "Learning" and "Proposing" Axesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dirección de proyectos de acción ambiental con comunidades vulnerables en Bolivia: Entender, Aprender, Proponer

2023

Proceedings From the International Congress on Project Management and Engineering

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Bolivia's chaotic development has led to alarming environmental pollution over the last 50 years, and is exposing rural communities to an increasing socioeconomic and environmental vulnerability. This situation has provoked, in recent years, a phenomenon of migration due to land use change. During this time, many academic and international cooperation environmental projects have been implemented to help these vulnerable populations, but they have had a limited impact due to the complexity of the situation. The Integrated Water Management component of the CReA Project, funded by VLIR, seeks to find solutions to increase the resilience of communities to water-related problems with an integrated and sustainable vision. The transdisciplinary projects developed are carried out with and for the communities, with the support of other national and international actors. The project "Agua y Vida en La Maica" works in a vulnerable agricultural area of the municipality of Cochabamba and established, with the community, a work based on 3 fundamental axes: "Understanding" through research, "Learning" through knowledge exchanges and "Proposing" with the development of tools adapted to the reality of the community.

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Towards participatory cross-impact balance analysis: Leveraging morphological analysis for data collection in energy transition scenario workshops

Cited by 10 publications

References 54 publications

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Addressing Goal Conflicts: New Policy Mixes for Commercial Land Use Management

Dirección de proyectos de acción ambiental con comunidades vulnerables en Bolivia: Entender, Aprender, Proponer

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