Towards system-theoretic risk assessment for future ships: A framework for selecting Risk Control Options

Risk evolution analysis of ship pilotage operation by an integrated model of FRAM and DBN

“…However, for the BN model of individual ship navigation risk assessment, the risk analysis based on historical data cannot often capture the real scenario risk, and it is necessary to use systematic risk analysis methods to characterize the risks of specific operating scenarios. Chaal et al [39] adopted System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) for hazard analysis and the identification of Risk Control Options (RCOs) for autonomous ships, while BN was employed in the framework for estimating the system risk. Qiao et al [40] used FRAM to construct a BN structure based on the qualitative description of an emergency response process, and employed an improved K-shell decomposition algorithm to obtain the PP of BN.…”

Risk analysis methodology using STPA-based Bayesian network- applied to remote pilotage operation

“…The techniques i.e., Parent-divorcing, Noisy-OR, and Sub-model, integrated into the framework reduced the complexity of developing large-scale BN. The Parent-divorcing and Noisy-OR gate technique reduced the challenges with several parent nodes and corresponding CPT requirements, which were faced by other STPA-BN studies such as Rekabi (2018), Utne et al (2020) and Chaal et al (2022). As a result, the compromise of limiting the maximum number of parent nodes or the number of hazards, which limits the size of the BN model is eliminated.…”

“…However, STPA is limited to hazard identification and does not attempt to estimate and assess the risk levels (Zhou et al, 2020). As a result, some studies have proposed STPA extensions by combining it with risk analysis methods such as FTA (Bensaci et al, 2020;Bolbot et al, 2020), Bow-Tie (Bensaci et al, 2020), Success Likelihood Index method (Ahn et al, 2022) and Bayesian Networks (BN) (Chaal et al, 2022;Johansen and Utne, 2022;Rekabi, 2018;Utne et al, 2020). Among these different options, the BN has been recommended for the risk analysis of complex systems in various studies such as by BahooToroody et al (2016); Khalaj et al (2020); Kontovas and Psaraftis (2009); Montewka et al (2022); Parviainen et al (2021); Thieme et al (2018); Ventikos et al (2022); Zhang and Thai (2016).…”

“…The novel combinations of STPA and BN have been explored recently in different studies such as Rekabi (2018), Utne et al (2020), Johansen and Utne (2022), Xu et al (2022) and Chaal et al (2022). The most recent study by Chaal et al (2022) provided an STPA-BN method for the risk-based design of autonomous ship systems, where BN were used for the identification of critical risk control options. Similarly, Utne et al (2020), and Johansen and Utne (2022) implemented STPA-BN for online risk modelling for autonomous ships for better decision-making.…”

Application of the EAST-BL method on a MASS system for Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

“…These researches can be divided into main two categories. The first category is called hybrid methods as they combine system-based hazard identification methods with traditional risk assessment methods like event sequence diagrams with concurrent task analysis and Bayesian Network (BN) [24] and STPA with BN [25]. Whereas the second includes methods/frameworks that approach the issue innovatively like the framework proposed by DNV where the probability in the risk assessment equation is replaced by the effectiveness of the Risk Control Measures (RCMs) [10] or the framework proposed by Ventikos and Louzis that utilises artificial immune system for hazard identification and risk assessment on MASS [26].…”