Towards the derivation of an integrated process cost-modelling technique for complex manufacturing systems

An Accuracy Investigation of Product Cost Estimation in Automotive Die Manufacturing

“…Each approached the task from a different perspective, either looking at historical data or at the processes determined by the design of the part, and with various degrees of complexity. It is clear from the literature that cost estimation methods have developed over time and have become more complex while taking into account more information in order to better predict the cost of a product (Agyapong-Kodua, et al, 2011).…”

“…Variant-based methods encompass methods that identify a similar product that has already been produced and makes use of the respectively associated cost data in order to determine the cost of the desired part/product (Agyapong-Kodua, et al, 2011;Verlinden, et al, 2008). Researchers claim analogous methods are the best-established and most-used cost estimation methods in the industry (Agyapong-Kodua, et al, 2011;Curran, et al, 2004;Shepperd, et al, 1996;Shepperd & Schofield, 1997). Curran (2004) documented several steps that could be followed in order to successfully implement an analogy-based method (Curran, et al, 2004).…”

“…factors which relate to the characteristics of the product that could influence its cost. Based on the identified factors, the cost is then estimated through association with previously produced parts (Agyapong-Kodua, et al, 2011;Curran, et al, 2004). This association is based on a similarity degree that can be determined through various algorithms ranging from manual expert evaluation, also known as expert judgement cost estimation, to complex algorithms (fuzzy logic, nearest neighbour etc.)…”

“…Using regression or statistical correlation analysis based on historical data, the influence of the recognised cost drivers on the manufacturing cost is determined. Further, these factors are included within the CER and thus are used for calculating the estimate (Agyapong-Kodua, et al, 2011;Curran, et al, 2004;Crawford, 1985).…”

“…Variant-based methods depend greatly on the accuracy of the data used as well as how precise the similarity measure is calculated (Agyapong-Kodua, et al, 2011). The higher the number of similarity factors that need to be considered, the higher is the complexity of the calculation and therefore the precision of the estimate is (Curran, et al, 2004;Shepperd & Schofield, 1997).…”