Tracing DAY-ZERO and Forecasting the Fade out of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A Compartmental Modelling and Numerical Optimization Approach

Abstract

Italy currently constitutes the epicenter of the novel coronavirus disease

State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States 

“…Consistent with our results, these studies have shown that rapid reopening of the economy without adequate testing and contact tracing could lead to a resurgence of the epidemic [14][15][16][17] . Specifically, they…”

“…Other modeling studies have used SEIR-type compartmental models to assess the impact of social distancing, testing and contact tracing to curb the epidemic curve in Italy and the United Kingdom [14][15][16][17] .…”

“…To address these needs, we developed and validated a data-driven transmission dynamic model to evaluate the impact of social distancing, state-reopening, testing, and contact tracing on the state-level dynamics of COVID-19 infections and mortality in the US, shown schematically in Figure 1. Like many other COVID-19 transmission models [14][15][16][17] , we used an extended SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed) compartmental model. The model divides the population into several disease compartments and tracts movements of individuals between the compartments through different transition rates.…”

Predictive Analytics of COVID-19 Using Information, Communication and Technologies

“…Study states that, higher average temperature is potential candidate to limit the spread of COVID-19. Lucia Russo et al [14] presented a mechanism to find the first day of infections and predictions of COVID-19 in Italy. Depending upon proposed work, authors are able to estimate that the actual count of exposed cases of COVID-19.…”

Two-scale Phenomenological and Statistical Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…Known models, statistical, mathematical, mechanistic space-state and empirical (machine learning) have been thoroughly reviewed recently 1 . Since the emergence of COVID-19, several newly published research articles rely on mathematical models to predict the spread of the virus, to estimate the basic reproduction factor, R 0 and, to highlight the influence of public policies on the outcome of the epidemic [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] . Statistical analyses of the epidemic data from different countries, by means of distribution and error functions, have also been performed with the aim of predicting the epidemic peak 12,13 some of which make use of machine learning techniques 14,15 .…”