Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates

Walsh, Conor; Lazarou, Nicholas‐Joseph; Traut, Michael; Price, James; Raucci, Carlo; Sharmina, Maria; Agnolucci, Paolo; Mander, Sarah; Gilbert, Paul; Anderson, Kevin; Bows‐Larkin, Alice; Smith, Twp

doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103537

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In addition, successful mitigation implies a move away from fossil fuels that constitute around 45% of global shipped trade by weight (UNCTAD, 2015). Therefore, demand for shipping such commodities would fall in response to successful decarbonisation over the coming decades and would be only partly replaced by bioenergy trade, mainly due to a more equal geographical distribution of biomass resources than of fossil fuel resources (Sharmina et al, 2017;Walsh et al, 2019). These changes would lead to even larger adjustments in supply chains than slow steaming would (Lindstad et al, 2011) and emphasise the unhelpful fragmentation of the sector between ship owners and ship charterers (Eide et al, 2011;Heitmann & Peterson, 2014).…”

Section: Shippingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C

et al. 2020

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Limiting warming to well below 2°C requires rapid and complete decarbonisation of energy systems. We compare economy-wide modelling of 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios with sector-focused analyses of four critical sectors that are difficult to decarbonise: aviation, shipping, road freight transport, and industry. We develop and apply a novel framework to analyse and track mitigation progress in these sectors. We find that emission reductions in the 1.5°C and 2°C scenarios of the IMAGE model come from deep cuts in CO 2 intensities and lower energy intensities, with minimal demand reductions in these sectors' activity. We identify a range of additional measures and policy levers that are not explicitly captured in modelled scenarios but could contribute significant emission reductions. These are demand reduction options, and include less air travel (aviation), reduced transportation of fossil fuels (shipping), more locally produced goods combined with high load factors (road freight), and a shift to a circular economy (industry). We discuss the challenges of reducing demand both for economy-wide modelling and for policy. Based on our sectoral analysis framework, we suggest modelling improvements and policy recommendations, calling on the relevant UN agencies to start tracking mitigation progress through monitoring key elements of the framework (CO 2 intensity, energy efficiency, and demand for sectoral activity, as well as the underlying drivers), as a matter of urgency. Key policy insights:. Four critical sectors (aviation, shipping, road freight, and industry) cannot cut their CO 2 emissions to zero rapidly with technological supply-side options alone. Without large-scale negative emissions, significant demand reductions for those sectors' activities are needed to meet the 1.5-2°C goal.. Policy priorities include affordable alternatives to frequent air travel; smooth connectivity between low-carbon travel modes; speed reductions in shipping and reduced demand for transporting fossil fuels; distributed manufacturing and local storage; and tightening standards for material use and product longevity.. The COVID-19 crisis presents a unique opportunity to enact lasting CO 2 emissions reductions, through switching from frequent air travel to other transport modes and online interactions.. Policies driving significant demand reductions for the critical sectors' activities would reduce reliance on carbon removal technologies that are unavailable at scale.

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Section: Shippingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C

et al. 2020

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“…The trade data used is globally consistent, linking different emissions scenarios to goods and commodities and subsequently to ship type. Four contrasting scenarios of international maritime transport demand to 2050, consistent with high and low levels of global CO 2 mitigation and associated climate impacts (see Walsh et al, 2019 for full details), are considered (see Figure 2).…”

Section: Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…World sea trade by type (in Mt) under the four scenarios (reprinted under Creative Commons CC‐BY license from Walsh et al, 2019). …”

Section: Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The scenarios developed for this analysis (Walsh et al, 2019) also show that, with different climate policy, there are variations in sea-borne trade over time and, while the global total may continue to increase, regional and national port capacity needs may fluctuate (see Figure 7). For example, Australia, as a major exporter of bulk materials especially coal, clearly shows the implications of the scenario assumptions; the port area…”

Section: Spatial Variationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To examine the future of ports including the effect of climate change policy, this paper analyses consistent trade and sea‐level scenarios to 2050 to explore the required port area, including requirement for new port area, and the adaptation needs for existing ports. As global climate policy to regulate greenhouse gas emissions is increasingly likely to influence how the demand for maritime transport evolves (Walsh et al, 2019), the trade and climate scenarios consider the effects of low and high levels of global CO 2 mitigation. Hence, this analysis provides a more comprehensive perspective on these changes and associated costs than previous assessments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Demand for Ports to 2050: Climate Policy, Growing Trade and the Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise

Hanson

Nicholls

2020

Earth's Future

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Port infrastructure is critical to the world's economy and has seen major expansion over the last few decades. In the future there are likely to be further demands for port capacity which will require additional port area while existing ports will need upgrading in response to sea‐level rise to maintain current levels of operability. This analysis considers potential changes to 2050 under four climate‐based scenarios which aim to explore changes in international maritime trade consistent with global temperature increases of 2 °C and 4 °C and the implications of associated sea‐level rise. All scenarios anticipate a significant increase in trade, and a change in distribution across commodities. The demand for port handling areas in 2050 is roughly double to quadruple that of the baseline (2010) across scenarios. The maximum demand occurs under an unmitigated climate and high intensity in commodity movement with a maximum area in 2050 of 5,054km2. The minimum demand (2,510km2) occurs under a scenario of regionalized green energy production and lower material intensity. The total global investment costs for port adaptation to sea‐level rise and provision of new areas are between 223 and 768 billion USD to 2050. These are dominated by the need for new area construction with the adaptation of base year areas to relative sea‐level rise representing a maximum of 6% of total costs globally. Therefore, in addition to adapting existing port areas to sea‐level rise, it is equally or more important to consider provision of new ports.

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Decarbonising ships, planes and trucks: An analysis of suitable low-carbon fuels for the maritime, aviation and haulage sectors

Gray

McDonagh

O’Shea

et al. 2021

Advances in Applied Energy

277

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Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates

Cited by 23 publications

References 20 publications

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C

Decarbonising the critical sectors of aviation, shipping, road freight and industry to limit warming to 1.5–2°C

Demand for Ports to 2050: Climate Policy, Growing Trade and the Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise

Decarbonising ships, planes and trucks: An analysis of suitable low-carbon fuels for the maritime, aviation and haulage sectors

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