Trade Relationships and Asymmetric Crisis Perception

Abstract

In this paper, we demonstrate that dependence on trade influences asymmetric crisis perception. Unilateral crisis perception is more likely to persist when the initiator of the crisis does not depend on trade with the target because in this case the target lacks capability to harm the initiator. Conversely, when the initiator is dependent on trade with the target, mutual crisis perception occurs sooner. Additionally, a state is more likely first to perceive a threat from another state—beginning a crisis as a target—when its trade dependence on that state is high. We find support for these expectations in survival time regressions and probit models spanning the period from 1919 to 2001.

Energy resources and the risk of conflict in shared river basins

“…Given that states in a river basin share either direct land contiguity or indirect contiguity through the basin, resource and economic interdependence in the region may exhibit strong influences on how states bargain over shared water resources. Peterson & Venteicher (2013) argue that increased sensitivity to trade partners' actions resulting from dependence influences crisis perceptions and interactions between states. States sharing river basins will face greater sensitivity to their neighbors' actions on the river.…”

“…Peterson & Venteicher (2013) argue that increased sensitivity to trade partners’ actions resulting from dependence influences crisis perceptions and interactions between states. States sharing river basins will face greater sensitivity to their neighbors’ actions on the river.…”

“…States sharing river basins will face greater sensitivity to their neighbors’ actions on the river. A state importing fuel or minerals on which its economy is highly dependent may be more vulnerable to interrupted trade (Peterson & Venteicher, 2013: 227). As seen in the cases of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, states could have more incentives to cooperate with each other if they are highly dependent on the other side’s resources to maintain overall stability in their economy.…”