Traditional Decision Analysis and the Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making

Abstract

The poliheuristic theory of foreign policy decision making posits a two-stage process wherein the decision maker first employs a noncompensatory decision rule to eliminate politically unacceptable alternatives and then employs a (perhaps) traditional decision procedure to select from the remaining set of acceptable alternatives. A general decision analysis is used to provide a structured account of the elimination process of the first stage of the poliheuristic theory by displaying a noncompensatory decision rule for eliminating unacceptable policy alternatives. The results show how general decision analysis can be used to specify when an alternative is unacceptable to a political decision maker who is sensitive to public opinion.Thepoliheuristictheoryofforeign policy decision making is characterized by a twostage process, described by Mintz and Geva (1997, 82-83) as follows:Foreign policy decision making often entails a two-stage process in which the first stage involves the elimination of certain alternatives from the choice set, and the second stage consists of an analytic process of choosing an alternative that minimizes risk and guarantees rewards. The first phase in the decision process typically involves a nonholistic (nonexhaustive) search, to select a subset of alternatives using a simplifying process. . . . The second phase typically involves a maximization or lexicographic decision rule for selecting an alternative from the subset of surviving alternatives.The purpose of this study is to employ a general decision analysis to provide a structured account of the elimination process of the first stage of the poliheuristic theory by displaying a noncompensatory decision rule for eliminating unacceptable, as well as retaining acceptable, policy alternatives. 38AUTHORS' NOTE: We wish to acknowledge Alex Mintz and the participants in the

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