Traditional or contemporary weather and climate forecasts: reaching Pacific communities

Abstract

In most countries, weather and seasonal climate forecasts are available through national meteorological services (NMSs). However, uptake of NMS forecasts in remote Pacific communities can be limited, particularly those relating to expected impacts. To address this, NMSs need a clearer understanding of the types of information local communities currently use and how this information is received, to enable them to modify their products and their delivery to better meet community needs. Structured community interviews across four Pacific countries (Niue, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu) were undertaken by NMSs and their incountry partners. These interviews highlighted that remote communities mainly relied on weather and climate forecasts based on traditional knowledge (TK) alone or in combination with contemporary (NMS) forecasts. Many who had access to both forecasts systems indicated that they only sourced contemporary forecasts in the lead up to and during extreme events, particularly cyclones, to assist their decision-making. Recent extreme events in the Pacific have shown that self-reliant communities, with knowledge of traditional ways of forecasting, and responding to climate extremes, experience several benefits including reduced social-economic disruption and lower than expected death rates, particularly when combined with contemporary warnings. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the role of local traditional knowledge-based forecasts and for NMSs to work towards improving the content and communication of their forecasts to enable communities to take advantage of all available forecast information. For effective risk reduction, warnings and responses should therefore complement contemporary forecasts, rather than replace, TK-based forecasts.

Enhancing Climate Resilience in the Pacific

“…Past resilience to climate variability and extremes has been mainly due to a strong reliance on TK, particularly that related to forecasting and preparedness (e.g., Handmer and Iveson 2017;Lefale 2010;). However, current thinking is that vulnerability can be further reduced by consideration of both TK and contemporary knowledge (Chambers et al 2017(Chambers et al , 2019Lefale 2010;Orlove et al 2010;Pennesi 2007;Zuma-Netshiukhwi et al 2013;Tadesse et al 2015). Prior to this project, little was known about the level of reliance on TK throughout the Pacific, though it was expected to be higher in more remote or rural locations, or of the extent to which contemporary forecasts and warnings were received and used.…”

“…To do this effectively, they need a clear understanding of the types of weather and climate information the communities currently understand and use and how they receive this information. Understanding these aspects enables the NMSs to adapt their products and communications to better meet the needs of their communities (Chambers et al 2019). For several communities in the Pacific, uptake of contemporary products from the NMSs, particularly those on the seasonal time-scale, is limited, with individuals preferring traditional or indigenous methods of weather and climate forecasting (Chambers et al 2017(Chambers et al , 2019VMGD 2012).…”

“…Understanding these aspects enables the NMSs to adapt their products and communications to better meet the needs of their communities (Chambers et al 2019). For several communities in the Pacific, uptake of contemporary products from the NMSs, particularly those on the seasonal time-scale, is limited, with individuals preferring traditional or indigenous methods of weather and climate forecasting (Chambers et al 2017(Chambers et al , 2019VMGD 2012). The Pacific NMSs are aware of this and recognize the value in incorporating traditional knowledge (TK) into their climate forecasts and communication products (e.g., Chambers et al 2019;VMGD 2012).…”

“…For several communities in the Pacific, uptake of contemporary products from the NMSs, particularly those on the seasonal time-scale, is limited, with individuals preferring traditional or indigenous methods of weather and climate forecasting (Chambers et al 2017(Chambers et al , 2019VMGD 2012). The Pacific NMSs are aware of this and recognize the value in incorporating traditional knowledge (TK) into their climate forecasts and communication products (e.g., Chambers et al 2019;VMGD 2012). This approach is expected to significantly improve the communication of information, particularly to local communities in remote areas (Lefale 2010;Pennesi 2007;Orlove et al 2010;Zuma-Netshiukhwi et al 2013;Tadesse et al 2015) with the aim of improving community resilience to extreme events.…”

“…This approach is in keeping with the global push toward recognition of TK and the value it adds to addressing complex problems, including climate change (UNESCO 2017). Importantly, community members in the Pacific overwhelmingly supported the development of climate products that combine TK with contemporary information (94% of 157 community members were interviewed in this study; for further details of this survey, see Chambers et al 2019;Malsale et al 2018).…”