Traffic analysis zone level crash estimation models based on land use characteristics

Pulugurtha, Srinivas S.; Duddu, Venkata R.; Kotagiri, Yashaswi

doi:10.1016/j.aap.2012.06.016

Cited by 121 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Tienen una localización espacial específica, lo que hace que estén relacionados con las características de su entorno, registran cierta frecuencia, tienen un componente aleatorio por lo tanto usualmente no son independientes ni estacionarios. Es por esto que suelen utilizarse modelos basados en el proceso de Poisson para explicar el comportamiento estadístico de los accidentes viales urbanos, (Hadayeghi et al, 2003;Miaou & Lord, 2003;Kim et al, 2006;Quddus, 2008;Pulugurtha et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Pronóstico de accidentes viales en el espacio intrametropolitano de Toluca: un enfoque Bayesiano

Reyes

Rangel²,

Alanís³

et al. 2015

TRANSPORTES

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Resumen: En años recientes la explicación de los accidentes de tránsito tiende a enfocarse en la estructura espacial urbana, tal explicación se basa en ciertas características del entorno como son: el uso de suelo, los sistemas viales, actividades económicas, población e intensidad de flujos vehiculares, entre otros. En el círculo de investigadores de este fenómeno, dichos factores se clasifican como indirectos y favorecen la ocurrencia de accidentes de tránsito en las ciudades del mundo. Este artículo se enfoca a realizar un análisis de riesgo de accidentes viales en la zona intrametropolitana de Toluca a nivel de AGEB . Se abordan los accidentes viales de tipo colisión. La investigación gira en torno a la identificación de los factores de la estructura urbana que más afectan el riesgo de accidentes de tránsito, lo que demarca un filtro estadístico para potenciar las variables a considerar en tres modelos con enfoque Bayesiano: Poisson-Gamma bivariante, multivariante y probabilístico Binomial Negativo. Los resultados indican que el flujo vehicular y la densidad de empleo son los indicadores que más se relacionan con los accidentes de tránsito tipo colisión en la zona.Palabras-clave: accidentes de tránsito en ciudades, estructura urbana, modelos Bayesianos. Abstract:In recent years, the explanation of traffic accidents tended to focus on the urban spatial structure. It is considered that certain features of the environment (e.g. land use, road system, economic activities, population and intensity of vehicular flows) are indirect factors that favor the occurrence of collision traffic accidents in urban areas. The central part of the intrametropolitan zone of Toluca in Mexico) records elevated rates of traffic accidents. This research aims to identify the physical elements of the urban structure, which affects most of the risks about traffic accidents, in the study area, at AGEB level (which stands for the Basic Geo-statistical Area). Three Bayesian models are being used in order to achieve the research objective: Bivariant Poisson-Gamma, Multivariate and Negative Binomial probabilistic. The results indicate that vehicular flows and employment density are the most related variables linked to the risk of collision traffic accidents, in the study area.

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Section: Introductionunclassified

Pronóstico de accidentes viales en el espacio intrametropolitano de Toluca: un enfoque Bayesiano

Reyes

Rangel²,

Alanís³

et al. 2015

TRANSPORTES

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“…Various other studies have focused on the TAZs for planning-level analysis of crashes as they have benefits of better homogeneity and easy integration into the transportation planning process (Pulugurtha et al, 2013). The long time period was selected to account for the serial correlations among crash data and explanatory variables, which were selected from planning perspective.…”

Section: Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of Influential Factors for Bicycle Crashes Using a Spatiotemporal Model

Gill

Sakrani

Cheng

et al. 2017

Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci.

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ABSTRACT:Despite the numerous potential advantages of indulging in bicycling, such as elevation of health and environment along with mitigation of congestion, the cyclists are a vulnerable group of commuters which is exposed to safety risks. This study aims to investigate the explanatory variables at transportation planning level which have a significant impact on the bicycle crashes. To account for the serial changes around the built environment, the linear time trend as well as time-varying coefficients are utilized for the covariates. These model modifications help account for the variations in the environment which may escape the incorporated variables due to lack of robustness in data. Also, to incorporate the interaction of roadway, demographic, and socioeconomic features within a Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ), with the bicycle crashes of that area, a spatial correlation is integrated. This spatial correlation accounts for the spatially structured random effects which capture the unobserved heterogeneity and add towards building more comprehensive model with relatively precise estimates. Two different age groups, the student population in the TAZs, the presence of arterial roads and bike lanes, were observed to be statistically significant variables related with bicycle crashes. These observations will guide the transportation planning organizations which focus on the entity of TAZ while developing policies. The results of the current study establish a quantifies relationship between the significant factors and the crash count which will enable the planners to choose the most cost-efficient, yet most productive, factors which needs to be addressed for mitigation of crashes.

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“…Consequently, the traffic risk exposure has increased. Understanding the road accident causes, identifying appropriate solutions and applying them since the urban planning phase can lead to traffic safety improvement [2,3]. In this frame, the aim of our research is to identify the relationships between land use and road safety performances and to develop a road accident estimation model at urban zones level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Reduced number of models have been elaborated for emphasizing the influence of the urban zone characteristics on accident occurrence. There are models developed for identifying the relationships between road accidents and compound road environments [12], for street network [13] and for land use [2,14]. This paper presents the case study of the model developed to estimate accident function of the urban area attributes in Bucharest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Road Accident Estimation Model in Urban Areas

Raicu¹,

Costescu²,

Burciu³

et al. 2017

Transport Problems

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Summary. Urban areas are significantly different in terms of traffic risk. In a decisive manner, they are the result of urban development policies. The shape, size and configuration of an entire urban area, the facilities to satisfy people and the need for mobility of goods, as well as behavioural attitudes of the population, are essential for a traffic pattern and its associated risks. In this framework, the purpose of this paper is to identify the effects of urban area characteristics on road accidents. Using specific spatial analysis, a model of accident estimation in the urban areas of Bucharest is developed. The study aims to provide useful tools for urban decision makers for a-priori analysis of the consequences of urban outline changes on traffic risks. MODÈLE D'ESTIMATION DES ACCIDENTS DE LA ROUTE DANS LES ZONES URBAINESRésumé. Les zones urbaines sont très différentes en termes de risque associé à la circulation. En manière décisive, ils sont le résultat des stratégies du développement urbain. La forme, la dimension et la configuration de l'ensemble de la région urbaine, l'offre pour satisfaire les besoins de mobilité des personnes et des marchandises, ainsi que les attitudes comportementales de la population sont essentielles pour le modèle de la circulation et le risque routier. Dans ce contexte, l'objectif de cet article est d'identifier les effets des caractéristiques des zones urbaines sur les accidents de la route. L'étude vise à fournir des décideurs dans la planification urbaine des instruments nécessaires pour analyser apriori les conséquences des changements de la structure urbaine sur le risque routier.

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Traffic analysis zone level crash estimation models based on land use characteristics

Cited by 121 publications

References 23 publications

Pronóstico de accidentes viales en el espacio intrametropolitano de Toluca: un enfoque Bayesiano

Pronóstico de accidentes viales en el espacio intrametropolitano de Toluca: un enfoque Bayesiano

Investigation of Influential Factors for Bicycle Crashes Using a Spatiotemporal Model

Road Accident Estimation Model in Urban Areas

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