Traffic fatalities and economic growth

Abstract

This dissertation adds to the current understanding of the socioeconomic determinants of traffic fatality rates by examining the variation in road deaths across countries and over time. Chapter two investigates the relationship between road safety and economic development within an Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. Reduced-form models of fatality risk as a function of per capita income are estimated using panel data for over 80 countries. The results confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship with income, with traffic fatality risk (fatalities per population) beginning to decline at incomes similar to those found for several environmental externalities. The turning point is driven by the rate of decline in fatalities per vehicle as income rises, since motorization rates (vehicles per population), while increasing with income at a decreasing rate, never decline with economic growth. This suggests that road safety improvements accompanying income growth depend on policies that reduce fatalities per vehicle rather than on reducing motorization.Projections suggest that the global road death toll will grow by 66% between 2000 and 2020 if historic trends continue. This number, however, reflects divergent rates of change in different parts of the world.Chapter three focuses on factors underlying the decline in fatalities per distance traveled, i.e., the downward sloping part of the road safety Kuznets curve.Formal models of traffic fatalities are developed for vehicle occupants and pedestrians. Reduced-form approximations to these models are estimated using panel data for over 30 high-income countries over 1964-2002. Estimates suggest that demographic changes and road building contributed to declines in both vehicle occupant and non-occupant fatality rates. In addition, increases in the size of the vehicle fleet, as predicted by theory, have increased occupant deaths while decreasing pedestrian deaths per distance driven.Improvements in medical care also played a role in reducing both fatality rates. The results do not offer evidence of a significant increase in demand for risky driving in response to newer, safer vehicles or seatbelt usage. The extent to which alcohol and increases in the elderly population have detrimental effects on fatality rates is found to be twice as large for pedestrians as for vehicle occupants.

Rising mortality from injury in urban China: demographic burden, underlying causes and policy implications

“…Many cross-sectional and secular analyses have shown that an inverted U captures the statistical relationship between changes in injury mortality and changes in per capita gross domestic product (GDP). [14][15][16][17][18][19] In other words, injury mortality initially increases as GDP per capita grows, but once the GDP exceeds a certain threshold, injury mortality falls with further economic growth. 14,16 However, the per capita GDP marking the turning points in injury mortality varies considerably across countries, even for a given injury category -from about 3000 to 15 000 United States dollars (US$).…”

“…14,16 However, the per capita GDP marking the turning points in injury mortality varies considerably across countries, even for a given injury category -from about 3000 to 15 000 United States dollars (US$). [14][15][16][17][18][19] These turning points reflect the adaptation of the national health-care system and of industrial, collective and personal countermeasures to lower injury risks, such as improved ambulance services, better occupational safety and helmet and seat belt use. Because injury mortality initially correlates with per capita GDP, [14][15][16][17][18][19] it is not surprising that China's urban prosperity over the past two decades (Table 2) has been accompanied by an increase in mortality from injury.…”

A Retrospective Study on the Unseen Epidemic of Road Traffic Injuries and Deaths Due to Accidents in Mwanza City—Tanzania

“…The number of vehicles per population Africa is still low in developing countries but still it has high RTAs [11]. It has been observed that with development the road traffic mortality will decline especially when both road conditions and health facilities to handle causalities will improve [5]. Since in Sub-Saharan Africa the stage of development is still far to be reached therefore there is a need to intervene the problem.…”

Relationship between Gross Domestic Product and Accident in China

“…Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationship between accident and economy growth. Kopits and Cropper [5], and Yannis [6] studied the relationship between traffic fatalities and economic growth. Carrion-i-Silvestre et al [7] analyzed the stationary of the real per capita health care expenditure (HCE) and real per capita GDP.…”