Training neuro-fuzzy using flower pollination algorithm to predict number of COVID-19 cases: situation analysis for twenty countries

Abstract

Predicting the number of COVID-19 cases offers a reflection of the future, and it is important for the implementation of preventive measures. The numbers of COVID-19 cases are constantly changing on a daily. Adaptive methods are needed for an effective estimation instead of traditional methods. In this study, a novel method based on neuro-fuzzy and FPA is proposed to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases. The antecedent and conclusion parameters of the neuro-fuzzy model are determined by using FPA. In other words, neuro-fuzzy training is carried out with FPA. The number of COVID-19 cases belonging to twenty countries including USA, India, Brazil, Russian, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Argentina, Germany, Colombia, Mexico, Poland, Turkey, Iran, Peru, Ukraine, South Africa, the Netherlands and Indonesia is estimated. Time series is created using the number of COVID-19 cases. Daily, weekly and monthly estimates are realized by utilizing these time series. MSE is used as the error metric. Although it varies according to the example and problem type, the best training error values between 0.000398027 and 0.0286562 are obtained. These best test error values are between 0.0005607 and 0.409867. The best training and test error values are 0.000398027 and 0.0005607, respectively. In addition to FPA, the number of cases is also predicted with the algorithms such as particle swarm optimization, harmony search, bee algorithm, differential evolution and their performances are compared. Success score and ranking are created for all algorithms. The scores of FPA for the daily, weekly and monthly forecast are 71, 77 and 62, respectively. These scores have shown that neuro-fuzzy training based on FPA is successful than other meta-heuristic algorithms for all three prediction types in the short- and medium-term estimation of COVID-19 case numbers.