Trait-based approaches to global change ecology: moving from description to prediction

Abstract

Trait-based approaches are increasingly recognized as a tool for understanding ecosystem re-assembly and function under intensifying global change. Here we synthesize trait-based research globally ( n = 865 studies) to examine the contexts in which traits may be used for global change prediction. We find that exponential growth in the field over the last decade remains dominated by descriptive studies of terrestrial plant morphology, highlighting significant opportunities to expand trait-based thinking across systems and taxa. Very few studies (less than 3%) focus on predicting ecological effects of global change, mostly in the past 5 years and via singular traits that mediate abiotic limits on species distribution. Beyond organism size (the most examined trait), we identify over 2500 other morphological, physiological, behavioural and life-history traits known to mediate environmental filters of species' range and abundance as candidates for future predictive global change work. Though uncommon, spatially explicit process models—which mechanistically link traits to changes in organism distributions and abundance—are among the most promising frameworks for holistic global change prediction at scales relevant for conservation decision-making. Further progress towards trait-based forecasting requires addressing persistent barriers including (1) matching scales of multivariate trait and environment data to focal processes disrupted by global change, and (2) propagating variation in trait and environmental parameters throughout process model functions using simulation.

Biological traits, geographic distributions, and species conservation in aquatic ecosystems

“…Trait‐based approaches for the analysis of impacts, risk, and vulnerability from environmental change are gaining momentum in ecology (Aubin et al, 2016; Degen et al, 2018; Green et al, 2022; Williams et al, 2008). As a surrogate of organismal performance, biological traits confer a mechanistic perspective to vulnerability assessment by providing information on the characteristics that preclude or allow species to tolerate environmental change (adaptive capacity) and the degree to which they are affected by those changes (sensitivity), which can then be used to predict responses to disturbance across levels of biological organization from populations to ecosystems (Laughlin et al, 2020; Schmitz et al, 2015; Vandewalle et al, 2010).…”

Grand challenges and bold opportunities in arachnid ecology and behavior

“…Identifying, describing, collecting and linking key individual-level functional traits, i.e. phenotypic traits such as physiological, morphological, behavioral and life-history characteristics that correlate with individual, population-and community-level success is a grand challenge with the ultimate reward of allowing to compare patterns and processes across taxa and ecological contexts (Zakharova et al, 2019;De Bello et al, 2021;Green et al, 2022). Within arachnid research, trait-based approaches have already taken form in the creation of a trait-database in the Araneae (Pekar et al, 2021) and similar databases are yet to be initiated for the Acari and other arachnid groups.…”

Trait diversity metrics can perform well with highly incomplete datasets

“…Trait-based approaches have emerged as an effective tool for addressing pressing questions in ecology and conservation (Green et al, 2022) and have been used to monitor ecosystem service delivery (Hevia et al, 2017), understand threats to ecosystem processes (Donoso et al, 2020), and forecast changes to ecosystem functioning (ŞekercioClu et al, 2004). In some cases assessments of trait diversity provide greater explanatory power than complementary measures of diversity such as species richness (Cadotte et al, 2011; Wilkes et al, 2020), in part due to the mechanistic link between traits and ecosystem functions (Petchey & Gaston, 2006).…”

“…Assessing trait diversity can contribute advances necessary for tackling human-induced biodiversity loss (Mason & De Bello, 2013) through producing early warning systems of ecosystem collapse (Frainer et al, 2021, although see O’Brien et al, 2022 [in press]) and enhancing prioritisation of conservation efforts (Carmona et al, 2021; Cooke et al, 2019). Research into how trait diversity has varied across time and space could yield fruitful insights into ecosystem responses to global change (Green et al, 2022; Petchey & Gaston, 2006). Given the potential and versatility of trait-based approaches, ensuring trait diversity analyses are appropriately applied is of great importance (Blonder et al, 2018).…”