Transboundary river basin flood forecasting and early warning system experience in Maritza River basin between Bulgaria and Turkey

Tuncok, I. Kaan

doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1315-0

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…On the other hand, the Mediterranean climatic influence is more visible to the south, affecting the lower parts of the Maritza and causing high flow conditions during winter. Flooding of the Maritza River typically occurs in the autumn, winter, and spring seasons and is caused mainly by heavy rainfalls and snowmelts (Tuncok, 2015).…”

Section: Materials and Methodmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The flood of June 1911 was one of the biggest, with a maximum discharge of approximately 1500 m 3 /s. Some of the more recent floods documented include the ones in 1957 with 1200 m 3 /s and in 1976 with 783 m 3 /s in addition to those in (Tuncok, 2015. Moreover, the flood occurring on 16 February 2010 is considered to be the second biggest flood in the last 26 years.…”

Section: Materials and Methodmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Flood Forecasting Using Transboundary Data With the Fuzzy Inference System: The Maritza (Meric) River.

Aydın¹,

Yücedağ²,

Eker³

2018

IJAR

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Section: Materials and Methodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Materials and Methodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Forecasting Using Transboundary Data With the Fuzzy Inference System: The Maritza (Meric) River.

Aydın¹,

Yücedağ²,

Eker³

2018

IJAR

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“…Within the basin of the Arda river, dangerous flash floods have occurred many times in the past due to heavy rains and sudden snowmelt, which is a result of the compound Continental-Mediterranean climate of the territory [12,13]. The existing historical records of the last 50 years confirm that the floods generally occur at the end of winter, but flood episodes occur quite often in summer and also in other seasons [14]. Despite the presence of three large reservoirs in the Bulgarian territory mainly for hydroelectric energy production [15], serious flood episodes often take place inside the Greek territory at the downstream part of the river.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Overflow Discharges and Flooding Areas from Flood Hydrographs Routing in Arda River, Greece

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Flooding is a natural disaster that damages infrastructure, properties, and may even cause loss of life. Major floods occur in the Arda river basin, which is shared between Greece and Bulgaria in Southeastern Europe. A flood warning system can sufficiently minimize adverse effects by helping to create a more successful and well-organized response plan. This paper presents an extensive numerical simulation of flood hydrograph routing between levees of the downstream section of the Arda river for floods with return periods from 2 to 10,000 years, using the one-dimensional software HEC-RAS. The main objective is to calculate the inundation areas, travel times of flood waves, water depths, water levels, flow velocities, and overflow volumes by simulating the hydraulic behavior of the Arda river outside its mountain watershed, where it flows through agricultural plane land with very mild slope. The great importance of the water level at the confluence of the Arda and Evros rivers (downstream boundary condition) has been pointed out for the regions near the confluence because the flow is the subcritical type. A significant finding of this work is the determination of the upper limit of the peak discharge hydrograph entering from the Arda to the Evros river to prevent the flooding of the Evros river. This finding is very important for the management of the flood flows of the Evros river, which is a major river with a complicated river system.

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“…In Turkey, the city of Edirne and the surrounding region are prone to flooding. The flood of June 1911 was one of the biggest, with a maximum discharge of approximately 1500 m 3 /s (Tuncok, 2015). Some of the more recent floods documented include the ones in 1957 with 1200 m 3 /s and in 1976 with 783 m 3 /s in addition to those in , and 2007(Tuncok, 2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The flood of June 1911 was one of the biggest, with a maximum discharge of approximately 1500 m 3 /s (Tuncok, 2015). Some of the more recent floods documented include the ones in 1957 with 1200 m 3 /s and in 1976 with 783 m 3 /s in addition to those in , and 2007(Tuncok, 2015. Moreover, the flood occurring on 16 February 2010 is considered to be the second biggest flood in the last 26 years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood forecasting using transboundary data with the fuzzy inference system: The Maritza (Meriç) River

Aydın

Yücedağ

Eker

2016

Preprint

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Abstract. The rising floodwaters of the Maritza River, originating in the Balkans, affect those living in adjacent areas. The lower regions of the Maritza River are especially vulnerable to floods. The city of Edirne and the surrounding region in Turkey located downstream of the Maritza River are frequently affected by flooding. The section of the river inside the Turkish border is short; therefore, there is not adequate warning time for Turkey to alert the population against flash floods. For this reason, it is essential that Turkey acquire current flow information from Bulgarian sites for use in current flow prediction for Turkey's section of the river. To this aim, in order to predict the current flow of the Kirişhane station (Turkey) from the transboundary data of Plovdiv and Svilengrad stations (Bulgaria), four different models (M1‒M4) were developed by using the fuzzy inference system (FIS). Flow data from the Plovdiv, Svilengrad and Kirişhane stations were gauged every two hours covering the period from 9 February 2010 00:00:00 to 21 February 2010 22:00:00. In the first model, estimation was made using the current flows of the Plovdiv and Svilengrad stations. In the second model, estimation was made based on a two hour ahead prediction of the Svilengrad station and a four hour ahead prediction of the Plovdiv station. In the third model, calculations were based on predictions of four hours ahead of the Svilengrad station and eight hours ahead of the Plovdiv station. In the last model, estimation was based on predictions of six hours ahead of the Svilengrad station and twelve hours ahead of the Plovdiv station. The prediction ability of the FIS was evaluated by using the determination coefficient (R2), the Nach–Sutcliffe sufficiency score (NSSS), the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), and the correlation coefficient (CORR). According to their performance criteria, all developed models produced highly satisfactory results. The M2 model gave the best results according to both NSSS and R2 values, whereas M4 had the lowest NSSS and R2 values. This study demonstrated that developed fuzzy rule-based models can satisfactorily predict flood waves and thus can be used for flood forecasting and warning systems.

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Transboundary river basin flood forecasting and early warning system experience in Maritza River basin between Bulgaria and Turkey

Cited by 12 publications

References 4 publications

Flood Forecasting Using Transboundary Data With the Fuzzy Inference System: The Maritza (Meric) River.

Flood Forecasting Using Transboundary Data With the Fuzzy Inference System: The Maritza (Meric) River.

Overflow Discharges and Flooding Areas from Flood Hydrographs Routing in Arda River, Greece

Flood forecasting using transboundary data with the fuzzy inference system: The Maritza (Meriç) River

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