Transferability of biotic interactions: Temporal consistency of arctic plant–rodent relationships is poor

Abstract

Variability in biotic interaction strength is an integral part of food web functioning. However, the consequences of the spatial and temporal variability of biotic interactions are poorly known, in particular for predicting species abundance and distribution. The amplitude of rodent population cycles (i.e., peak‐phase abundances) has been hypothesized to be determined by vegetation properties in tundra ecosystems. We assessed the spatial and temporal predictability of food and shelter plants effects on peak‐phase small rodent abundance during two consecutive rodent population peaks. Rodent abundance was related to both food and shelter biomass during the first peak, and spatial transferability was mostly good. Yet, the temporal transferability of our models to the next population peak was poorer. Plant–rodent interactions are thus temporally variable and likely more complex than simple one‐directional (bottom‐up) relationships or variably overruled by other biotic interactions and abiotic factors. We propose that parametrizing a more complete set of functional links within food webs across abiotic and biotic contexts would improve transferability of biotic interaction models. Such attempts are currently constrained by the lack of data with replicated estimates of key players in food webs. Enhanced collaboration between researchers whose main research interests lay in different parts of the food web could ameliorate this.

Ecological forecasts reveal limitations of common model selection methods: predicting changes in beaver colony densities

“…Long‐term studies like ours have been historically important in advancing population ecology and will continue to play a large role going forward (Reinke et al 2019). Despite the declining abundance of, and funding for, long‐term field studies, they remain essential for fully capturing the temporal heterogeneity of ecological systems and will likely yield unique insights into patterns of model transferability (e.g., by identifying whether there may be temporal variation in the transferability of models; Kleiven et al 2018, Soininen et al 2018). Unfortunately, our study is one of many long‐term programs that have been discontinued.…”

Best environmental predictors of breeding phenology differ with elevation in a common woodland bird species

“…Variable phenological responses according to elevation raise the question of transferability (Soininen et al. 2018; Yates et al. 2018) of models built at a single elevation as the predictors of phenology at one elevation may not be consistent at higher elevations, or relevant in the context of future climate changes.…”

“…Hence, assessing links between changes in climate, or in this case, interannual variability in climate conditions, changes in plant phenology, and changes in bird breeding phenology at different elevations are necessary in order to understand and predict elevation‐dependent phenological responses to climate. Variable importance of climate drivers along elevation gradients could imply a low transferability (Soininen et al., 2018; Yates et al., 2018) of models developed within a narrow elevation band.…”

Rodent population cycle as a determinant of gastrointestinal nematode abundance in a low-arctic population of the red fox

“…Three rodent species are abundant; the Norwegian lemming ( Lemmus lemmus ), the grey-sided vole ( Myodes rufocanus ) and the tundra vole ( Microtus oeconomus ) (Ims et al, 2011; Henden et al, 2011). The three rodent species exhibit a 4–5-year population cycles that are synchronous across the study area (spatial synchrony) and among the three species (inter-specific synchrony) (Ims et al, 2011, 2017; Soininen et al, 2018; Kleiven et al, 2018).…”