Transformation of the Ukraine's Economy Structure in War Conditions

Abstract

This study examines as a war, that undermined the economic security of the country, at the same time is deforming the structure of the national economy. The purpose of the article is to study the factors of structural deformation of the economy during the war; to analyze export specialization and the structure of the national economy; to consider the prospects for the development of long production chains as a prerequisite for structural progress. The factors of this deformation have been summarized, namely, the people death, their deportation by the aggressor; complete or partial shutdown of most enterprises; huge losses of key production factors (physical capital, labor, land); disruption of product supply and sales chains; limiting the availability of necessary production resources; loss of jobs and drop in income; market imbalance; destabilization of foreign trade. The composition of the export basket has been analyzed as a reflection of the national economy structure; and the dominance of raw materials and products with a low degree of processing in the export have been shown. Tendencies to narrowing of the variety of industrial activity types and products assortment have been revealed, which indicates the simplification of the national economy and the weakness of its innovative potential. The results of econometric modeling show that the density of inter-industry connections in the economics of the country is low, and the development of value chains is insufficient. The need to improve the structure of the economy through the creation of long production chains (which should combine the agricultural sector with the processing and service sectors) in order to increase the productivity and the growth rates of the economy has been substantiated.