Purpose
The purpose of this research is to develop and validate a nomogram of the risk of surgical site infections in Patients Undergoing lumbar Internal Fixation Surgery.
Patients and methods:
We had collected a total of 1327 patients with lumbar internal fixation surgery, 1273 patients were normal lumbar fixation group and 54 patients in the surgical site infections group. Patients are divided into two echelons of testing and verification, and R software is used as the only statistical analysis. In the training tests, first, single factor logistic regression analysis was used to select potential predictors with significant p-values. Then multivariate logistic regression analysis is used to filter out the predictors which we need. A nomogram was constructed using the coefficients of variable provided by Multivariate logistic regression analysis, the calibration and clinical applicability of the predictive model are evaluated by using the C index, calibration curve, and decision curve. In addition, we use internal verification tests to verify the built model.
Results
This unprecedented nomogram of SSI risk for lumbar Internal Fixation Surgery includes modic status, glucose, Hb, ESR, blood transfusion, sebum thickness. The model shows a good degree of discrimination, with a C index of 0.975 (95% confidence interval: 0. 964, 0. 987) and good alignment. The decision curve analysis showed that the SSI nomogram is clinically meaningful when the 1% probability threshold of the normal group is used to determine the intervention. The C-index of the validation test was 0.981(95% confidence interval: 0. 957, 1.005).
Conclusion
This novel SSI prediction nomogram combines Modic status, glucose, Hb, ESR, blood transfusion, sebum thickness, and can be easily used for individualized SSI probability prediction in lumbar Internal Fixation Surgery patients.