Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective

Li, Zhichun; Guo, Qianwen; Lam, William H. K.; Wong, S. C.

doi:10.1016/j.trb.2015.05.006

Cited by 41 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Burke and Demirag [27] found that the traffic demand risk emanates within the operational phase, while the toll revenue calculation is conducted before the time when PPP becomes operational (at the planning stage). Otherwise, recently researchers focused more on the highway investment size, investment timing, and corresponding solutions [28][29][30]; these studies can be helpful for the highway investment and avoid the invest risk.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Highway Project Value of Money Assessment under PPP Mode and Its Application

Juan²

2018

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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The application of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) mode in transportation infrastructure construction has achieved more progress worldwide; now this mode has been adopted in highway projects of China from 2015. In the application of PPP mode, there are three main facts in China, which include whether the government is responsible for land acquisition and resettlement (LAR), the discount rate changes, and the replacement of business tax by value-added tax (VAT) in 2016. So this paper discusses Value for Money (VFM) quantitative assessment of highway projects under PPP mode in China, which considers currently three actual issues in China. A case study of Heda freeway in China has shown that (1) the government’s responsibility for LAR compensation may attract social capital investor and reduce the risk of social instability, (2) a reasonable range of a low discount rate can greatly reduce government expenditure, and (3) the replacement of business tax by VAT will increase the highway project company’s burden. The research results will be helpful for value of money assessment of highway projects under PPP mode in China and may offer the reference for other countries’ highway projects under PPP mode.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Highway Project Value of Money Assessment under PPP Mode and Its Application

Juan²

2018

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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“…The critical population density is identified for selection of transit modes. Li et al (2015) approach a similar problem as in Chen et al (2015) in different ways. The uncertainty in population is explicitly considered by characterizing the population growth with a geometric Brownian motion.…”

Section: Selection Of Pure Transit Modesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of public transit modes in a commuter corridor

Sun

Guo

Schonfeld

et al. 2017

Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies

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This paper explores how the selection of public transit modes can be optimized over a planning horizon. This conceptual analysis sacrifices geographic detail in order to better highlight the relations among important factors. First, a set of static models is proposed to identify which type of service, e.g., bus only, rail only, or bus and rail, is the most cost-effective in terms of the average trip cost for given demand. After analyzing essential factors in a long-term planning process, e.g., economies of scale in rail extension and future cost discounting, a dynamic model incorporating such considerations is formulated to optimize the decision over a planning horizon. While analytical solutions can be obtained for some decision variables, the final model is solved with a graphical method by exploring the tradeoffs between the initial and recurring costs. Major findings from this study include: (a) there exists a minimum economic length for a rail line, which can be determined numerically; (b) economies of scale favor large extensions and excess supplied capacity; (c) the rail-only service is largely dominated by the feeder-trunk service, even in the long run.

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“…Supplementary proof of (7) and (10) related to this article can be found in Appendix B. Supplementary proof of static analysis for the thresholds q * and M * related to this article can be found in Appendix C. (Supplementary Materials) …”

Section: Supplementary Materialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is a compelling need to account for time-dependent uncertainty within network designs and project investment due to their irreversible characteristics [25,26]. Li et al [10] proposed a RO model to address investment and selection in transit technology given a volatile city population by considering the spatial use equilibrium of a city. Chow et al [27] investigated the management of a transportation network in an uncertain market, applying the RO approach and dynamic programming to obtain the value of flexibility and to defer and redesign a network.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

Zhang

Jiang

et al. 2017

Complexity

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This paper uses a real options approach to address optimal timing and size of a logistics park investment with logistics demand volatility. Two important problems are examined: when should an investment be introduced, and what size should it be? A real option model is proposed to explicitly incorporate the effect of government subsidies on logistics park investment. Logistic demand that triggers the threshold for investment in a logistics park project is explored analytically. Comparative static analyses of logistics park investment are also carried out. Our analytical results show that (1) investors will select smaller sized logistics parks and prepone the investment if government subsidies are considered; (2) the real option will postpone the optimal investment timing of logistics parks compared with net present value approach; and (3) logistic demands can significantly affect the optimal investment size and timing of logistics park investment.

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Transit technology investment and selection under urban population volatility: A real option perspective

Cited by 41 publications

References 36 publications

Highway Project Value of Money Assessment under PPP Mode and Its Application

Highway Project Value of Money Assessment under PPP Mode and Its Application

Evolution of public transit modes in a commuter corridor

Optimal Investment Timing and Size of a Logistics Park: A Real Options Perspective

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