Transit Timing Variation of XO-3b: Evidence for Tidal Evolution of Hot Jupiter with High Eccentricity

Yang, Fan; Wei, Xing

doi:10.1088/1538-3873/ac495a

“…A recent analysis of TESS data confirmed this decay rate, reducing the error bars below 1 ms yr −1 (Wong et al 2022). Possible tidal decay has also been reported for several other systems, including XO-3 b (Ivshina & Winn 2022;Yang & Wei 2022), WASP-19 b (Patra et al 2020;Ivshina & Winn 2022), TrES-1 b, TrES-2 b, HAT-P-19 b (Hagey et al 2022), Kepler-1658b (Vissapragada et al 2022, and KELT-9 b (Harre et al 2023). However, definitive confirmation will likely require additional years of observations, and knowing which planets to prioritize requires understanding how decay is detected and what parameters best suit a system to exhibit detectable decay.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 70%

Metrics for Optimizing Searches for Tidally Decaying Exoplanets

Jackson,

Adams,

Morgenthaler

2023

AJ

1

0

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Tidal interactions between short-period exoplanets and their host stars drive orbital decay and have likely led to engulfment of planets by their stars. Precise transit timing surveys, with baselines now spanning decades for some planets, are directly detecting orbital decay for a handful of planets, with corroboration for planetary engulfment coming from independent lines of evidence. More than that, recent observations have perhaps even caught the moment of engulfment for one unfortunate planet. These portentous signs bolster prospects for ongoing surveys, but optimizing such a survey requires considering the astrophysical parameters that give rise to robust timing constraints and large tidal decay rates, as well as how best to schedule observations conducted over many years. The large number of possible targets means it is not feasible to continually observe all planets that might exhibit detectable tidal decay. In this study, we explore astrophysical and observational properties for a short-period exoplanet system that can maximize the likelihood for observing tidally driven transit timing variations. We consider several fiducial observational strategies and real exoplanet systems reported to exhibit decay. We show that moderately frequent (a few transits per year) observations may suffice to detect tidal decay within just a few years. Tidally driven timing variations take time to grow to detectable levels, so we estimate how long that growth takes as a function of timing uncertainties and tidal decay rate and provide thresholds for deciding that tidal decay has been detected.

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“…XO-3 b and WASP-17 b are the only two systems on both of our interested candidate lists. For XO-3 b, as we have already pointed out in Section 4.1.15, the earlier work of Yang & Wei (2022) reported a rate of decay of −195 ± 9 ms yr −1 , whereas in this work we have obtained a much smaller value of −32 ± 5 ms yr −1 with additional TESS data. For WASP-17 b, Shan et al (2023) found it shows the largest late offset timing of 70.8 ± 11.7 minutes using a linear ephemeris model, while we find it to be consistent with =  P 0 ms yr −1 after the removal of one single transit-time data with a very small error bar (∼8 s).…”

Section: Comparison To Thesupporting

confidence: 49%

“…It orbits an F5V star with an orbital period of 3.192 days, with an eccentric and misaligned orbit (Hébrard et al 2008). TESS transit-timing analysis of this system was performed by Yang & Wei (2022), who found dP/dE = − 6.2 × 10 −9 ± 2.9 × 10 −10 , which is equivalent to = -  P 195 9 ms yr −1 . A subsequent study by Ivshina & Winn (2022) found a rate of decay of −182.08 ± 12.96 ms yr −1 .…”

Section: Tres-1 Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term Variations in the Orbital Period of Hot Jupiters from Transit-timing Analysis Using TESS Survey Data

Wang,

Zhang,

Chen

et al. 2024

ApJS

5

0

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Many hot Jupiters may experience orbital decays, which are manifested as long-term transit-timing variations. We have analyzed 7068 transits from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) for a sample of 326 hot Jupiters. These new mid-transit-time data allow us to update ephemerides for these systems. By combining the new TESS transit-timing data with archival data, we searched for possible long-term variations in the orbital period in these hot Jupiters using a linear and a quadratic ephemeris model. We identified 26 candidates that exhibit possible long-term variations of the orbital period, including 18 candidates with decreasing orbital periods and eight candidates with increasing orbital periods. Among them, 12 candidates failed our leave-one-out cross validation test and thus should be considered to be marginal candidates. In addition to tidal interaction, alternative mechanisms such as apsidal precession, the Rømer effect, and the Applegate effect could also contribute to the variations during the observed period. The ephemerides derived in this work are useful for scheduling follow-up observations for these hot Jupiters in the future. The Python code (PdotQuest, https://github.com/AeoN400/PdotQuest) used to generate the ephemerides is made available online.

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“…In the past few years, as observational baselines have passed the decade mark for many systems, a growing number of UHJs around main-sequence stars have been presented with suggestions that they may have decreasing orbital periods. These include HAT-P-19 b (Hagey et al 2022) Maciejewski et al 2021;Hagey et al 2022;Ivshina & Winn 2022;Yeh et al 2024); WASP-4 b (Bouma et al 2020;Hagey et al 2022;Harre et al 2023); WASP-19 b (Patra et al 2020;Ivshina & Winn 2022); WASP-32 b (but not significant; Sun et al 2023); WASP-43 b as reported by Sun et al (2018), though not by Hagey et al (2022); and XO-3 b (Ivshina & Winn 2022;Yang & Wei 2022). Many of these claimed detections are acknowledged in the original publications to be of marginal significance, however.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Doomed Worlds. I. No New Evidence for Orbital Decay in a Long-term Survey of 43 Ultrahot Jupiters

Adams,

Jackson,

Sickafoose

et al. 2024

Planet. Sci. J.

3

0

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Ultrahot Jupiters (UHJs) are likely doomed by tidal forces to undergo orbital decay and eventual disruption by their stars, but the timescale over which this process unfolds is unknown. We present results from a long-term project to monitor UHJ transits. We recovered WASP-12 b’s orbital decay rate of P ̇ = − 29.8 ± 1.6 ms yr−1, in agreement with prior work. Five other systems initially had promising nonlinear transit ephemerides. However, a closer examination of two—WASP-19 b and CoRoT-2 b, both with prior tentative detections—revealed several independent errors with the literature timing data; after correction, neither planet shows signs of orbital decay. Meanwhile, a potential decreasing period for TrES-1 b, P ̇ = − 16 ± 5 ms yr−1, corresponds to a tidal quality factor Q ⋆ ′ = 160 and likely does not result from orbital decay if driven by dissipation within the host star. Nominal period increases in two systems, WASP-121 b and WASP-46 b, rest on a small handful of points. Only 1/43 planets (WASP-12 b) in our sample is experiencing detectable orbital decay. For nearly half (20/42), we can rule out P ̇ as high as observed for WASP-12 b. Thus, while many UHJs could still be experiencing rapid decay that we cannot yet detect, a sizable subpopulation of UHJs are decaying at least an order of magnitude more slowly than WASP-12 b. Our reanalysis of Kepler-1658 b with no new data finds that it remains a promising orbital decay candidate. Finally, we recommend that the scientific community take steps to avoid spurious detections through better management of the multi-decade-spanning data sets needed to search for and study planetary orbital decay.

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Transit Timing Variation of XO-3b: Evidence for Tidal Evolution of Hot Jupiter with High Eccentricity

Cited by 9 publications

References 61 publications

Metrics for Optimizing Searches for Tidally Decaying Exoplanets

Metrics for Optimizing Searches for Tidally Decaying Exoplanets

Long-term Variations in the Orbital Period of Hot Jupiters from Transit-timing Analysis Using TESS Survey Data

Doomed Worlds. I. No New Evidence for Orbital Decay in a Long-term Survey of 43 Ultrahot Jupiters

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