Transition Assessment of the Bangladeshi Financial Market Stress Regimes: A Markov Switching Modeling Approach

Abstract

Purpose of this study: In view of the global financial crises and the ensuing consequences, this research presents the utility of demonstrating an assessment that can forecast the Bangladeshi financial market’s well-being by analysing episodes of economic crises which may prevent market distress. By graphically demonstrating eventual economic episodes in the financial sector, this study sets out to illustrate the chronological scenario of economic turning points. The scope of this research is to study the vulnerable aspects of financial instability in Bangladesh and seek possible remedies. Methodology: The Bangladeshi financial market regimes will be constructed based on Hamilton's Markov Switching Model (1989). This paper is the first attempt in utilising a standardised methodology found in business cycle literatures so as to determine the turning points of economic episodes in the Bangladeshi financial dynamic cycle. Main Findings: This study examines the financial crises and economic distress experienced by banks as forms of economic vulnerabilities. Thus, it describes the financial regimes of transition period movements in the context of the vulnerability of the Bangladeshi financial market sector using the Markov Switching Modeling (MSM) Approach and shows ways to possibly achieve recovery. Research Limitations/Implications: This research focuses on the current financial episodes of the economic sector’s dynamic movements in a condensed area, while the selection of a broad financial arena of parameters results in more significant and robust outcomes. Novelty/Originality: Further studies are needed to define and measure the financial cycle concept and its relationship with business cycles, as well as to delineate dynamic models that can offer substantial probabilistic assessments regarding changes in financial cycle regimes. This can significantly develop the capability of the financial market supervisory authorities to forecast macro-prudential systemic risks and to avoid or reduce the consequences of economic crises. This current study provides a platform for future studies in similar fields.

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