Transition of the Swiss Phosphorus System towards a Circular Economy—Part 2: Socio-Technical Scenarios

Abstract

Abstract:A transition towards a circular economy of phosphorus (P) in Switzerland is a multi-faceted challenge as P use is subject to a variety of influencing factors comprising policy interventions, consumption trends, or technological innovations on different spatial scales. Therefore, scenarios for P use that take into account both the social and the technical dimension of change are needed for investigating possible pathways of a transition towards more sustainable P futures. Drawing on the multi-level perspective of transition theory, we develop scenarios on the landscape level, i.e., a balanced and healthy human diet, on the regime level, i.e., P recovery from sewage sludge (ash) and meat and bone meal, and on the niche level, i.e., urine separation. Based on the P system of the year 2015, we assess the quantitative implications of the scenarios for the Swiss P system. While scenario 1 mainly affects the agricultural system by reducing the overall P throughput, scenario 2 significantly changes P use in waste management, because P losses to landfills and cement plants decrease and the production of secondary P increases. Scenario 3 shows little quantitative impact on the national P system. From a qualitative transition perspective, however, urine separation entails fundamental socio-technical shifts in the wastewater system, whereas P recovery from sewage sludge (ash) represents an incremental system adaptation. The combination of flow-and transition-oriented research provides more general insights into how a circular economy of P can be reached. Furthermore, the analysis of P recycling scenarios reveals that transition processes in Switzerland are embedded in a global resource economy. Thus, a sole focus on concepts of national P self-sufficiency and the reduction of Switzerland's P import dependency tend to fall short when analysing the economisation of secondary P materials in the face of transnational resource flows and markets.

Anthropogenic global shifts in biospheric N and P concentrations and ratios and their impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem productivity, food security, and human health

“…Projections of demands for P fertilizers estimate a doubling of current levels by 2050 , consistent with short-term predictions (Jedelhauser, Mehr, & Binder, 2018;Matsubae, Kajiyama, Hiraki, & Nagasaka, 2011;Withers, Doody, & Sylvester-Bradley, 2018;Withers, Rodrigues, et al, 2018).…”

“…Some issues for avoiding the impacts of potential P scarcity on global food security for an increasing human population are important (Obersteiner et al, ; Rosemarin & Ekane, ), including increased demand and prices for P fertilizers that will likely render them inaccessible to poor and food‐insecure countries (Kahsay, ; Obersteiner et al, ). Projections of demands for P fertilizers estimate a doubling of current levels by 2050 (Mogollón, Beusen, Grinsven, Westhoek, & Bouwman, ), consistent with short‐term predictions (Jedelhauser, Mehr, & Binder, ; Matsubae, Kajiyama, Hiraki, & Nagasaka, ; Withers, Doody, & Sylvester‐Bradley, ; Withers, Rodrigues, et al, ).…”

“…Several policy and management mitigative strategies have been proposed to meet the challenges that the negative effects of P availability pose to food security, environmental health, and geopolitical and economic stability among countries (Cordell & White, ; Dumas et al, ; Hukari, Hermann, & Nättorp, ; Metson et al, ; Obersteiner et al, ; Withers et al, ). Key global approaches to ensuring sustainable P management and the avoidance of future P scarcity and limitation include stabilizing P prices, balancing the requirements of P supply and demand, limiting eutrophication, optimizing P cycling, remobilizing and recovering P stores in cropland soil, designing and implementing novel biotechnologies for crop and livestock production, and moving toward plant‐based diets (Bai et al, ; Cordell et al, ; Cordell & White, ; Jedelhauser & Binder, ; Jedelhauser et al, ; Kasprzyk & Gajewska, ; Lukowiak, Grzebisz, & Sassenrath, ; MacDonald et al, ; Metson, MacDonald, Haberman, Nesme, & Bennett, ; Neset & Cordell, ; Roy, ; Schröder, Smit, Cordell, & Rosemarin, ; Suh & Yee, ; Withers et al, ; Withers, Rodrigues, et al, ; Wu, Franzén, & Malmström, ).…”

Sustainable Mineral Resource Management—Insights into the Case of Phosphorus

“…. Circular principles for moving toward a circular phosphorus economy based on [22] categorizing [27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39].…”

Integrating Life-Cycle Perspectives and Spatial Dimensions of Sewage Sludge Mono-Incineration

“…Concerning P-recovery, the possibility to extract P from mono-incineration ash has been gaining attention in recent years [7]. Current research is investigating the understanding and creation of P-recovery strategies, and, as such, development has proceeded [8][9][10]. Mono-incineration is a technology utilizing the input of one basic incineration material, in this case, sewage sludge, and it is a highly energy intensive method.…”