Transition policies for climatically sustainable aviation

Abstract

Emissions from aviation are expected to grow. With evidence that the International Civil Aviation Organization's Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation is an inadequate mitigation mechanism, there is interest in upscaling the sector's climate-related policies. This paper reviews potential aviation emissions mitigation policies against the background of emerging complexities, such as the large share of radiative forcing not covered under any policy agreement, as well as highly skewed demand distributions. In total, 30 voluntary, market-based and regulatory "transition policies" are identified and evaluated with regard to their potential to reduce emissions from air passenger transport and to initiate the transition to new fuels and propulsion technologies. The paper also discusses the potential public acceptance of differing policies. It concludes that the removal of fossil fuel and related subsidies represents a priority, supported by policy mixes comprising levies (CO 2 , frequent fliers, premium classes) and a feed-in quota for definitively established sustainable aviation fuels. To reduce flight emissions is feasible in principle, but will require policy initiatives at the national level or at the level of regional jurisdictions such as the European Union.

Destination net-zero: what does the international energy agency roadmap mean for tourism?

“…Longer range estimates by Rystad Energy and HIS Markit suggest SAF will supply only between 15% and 30% in 2050 (New York Times, 2021). Important technical, economic, and political barriers remain (G€ ossling et al, 2021b;Scheelhaase et al, 2019;G€ ossling & Lyle, 2021). A massive and rapid increase in alternative propulsion research and development would be required in the early 2020s if the gap in these projections is potentially to be narrowed.…”

“…This raises important policy questions about the role of government in SAFs. Aviation's social licence to operate in a NZ economy and recent trends in climate law would suggest the onus is on industry to prioritize such investments, but this will only happen if mandated by governments, for instance through feed-in quotas and carbon taxes (G€ ossling & Lyle, 2021). The significant cost of technology innovation and carbon taxes stand in sharp contrast to the ICAO CORSIA plan and its objective of marginal cost increases.…”

“…As indicated by G€ ossling et al (2012) and Scott and G€ ossling (2018), tourist behavioural changes will also be fundamental to the NZ transition. There is evidence of growing public support for strategies that will curb emissions from aviation through regulation (G€ ossling & Lyle, 2021;Kallbekken & Saelen, 2021). While a greater understanding of tourist policy preferences and willingness to pay or adopt specific decarbonization strategies (e.g., modal shifts, destination choice), continue to be important areas of research to advance tourism decarbonization, it is basically understood that governments need to push behavioral change by introducing significant prices on carbon.…”

“…Air travel remains the most difficult and largest source of tourism emissions to abate, though a very significant share of emissions could probably be avoided by simply reducing capacity and addressing the demand patterns of the very frequent fliers (G€ ossling & Lyle, 2021). The political and technological challenges to emission reduction from aviation are discussed in detail by G€ ossling and Lyle (2021) and G€ ossling et al (2021b).…”

“…The lack of specific actions in the Glasgow Declaration, and only unspecific commitments to measure sector emissions, reduce emissions, finance decarbonization and adaptation, and to collaborate on the NZ journey reinforce this concern. Many of these actions have been recommended over a decade ago (e.g., Scott et al, 2008), while recent studies demonstrate the persistent disconnect between tourism and climate policy at national scales (Becken et al, 2020;G€ ossling & Lyle, 2021).…”