Transition to Parenthood: The Role of Social Interaction and Endogenous Networks

Diaz, Belinda Aparicio; Fent, Thomas; Prskawetz, Alexia; Bernardi, Laura

doi:10.1007/s13524-011-0023-6

Cited by 44 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…The choice of a cohort is purely illustrative, but still it demonstrates some interesting features of the simulation. Even though parity progression is not modelled explicitly in terms of agent-based rules, as is the case e.g., in the work by Aparicio Diaz et al (2011), the share of childless female agents is very close to the one actually expected for the relevant cohort in the official population projections. Also for the higher parities (3 children and more), the projected values lie within 95% confidence bounds from the simulation.…”

Section: Illustration: a Scenario With Plausible Marriage Rates And Pmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…From the classical example of the residential segregation model of Schelling (1978), other applications include marriage formation (Billari and Prskawetz 2003;Todd, Billari, and Simão 2005;Billari 2006;Billari et al 2006Billari et al , 2007Hills and Todd 2008), family-related decisions with respect to parenthood transitions (Aparicio Diaz et al 2011), migration (Heiland 2003;Kniveton, Smith, and Wood, 2011;Willekens 2012) and other forms of residential mobility (Benenson, Omer, and Hatna 2003), as well as overall household dynamics (Geard et al 2013).…”

Section: Background: Micro-simulations and Agent-based Demography Revmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We argue that models of this type, when backed with demographic data, can generate coherent "what-if" scenarios based on a set of plausible assumptions of the mechanisms underlying the behaviour of simulated individuals (agents). In this way our approach combines the advantages of pure agent-based modelling, such as description of the mechanisms involved in population processes (Billari et al 2007;Aparicio Diaz et al 2011), with the empirical relevance of demographic analysis, when doing so is feasible. It has to be noted that our models are illustrative rather than attempting to be fully realistic with respect to all aspects of the underlying demographics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Reforging the Wedding Ring

Bijak¹,

Hilton²,

Silverman³

et al. 2013

DemRes

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Section: Illustration: a Scenario With Plausible Marriage Rates And Pmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Background: Micro-simulations and Agent-based Demography Revmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Reforging the Wedding Ring

Bijak¹,

Hilton²,

Silverman³

et al. 2013

DemRes

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“…A growing body of literature indicates that both fertility intentions and actual behaviour are influenced by an individual's peer group. Social networks affect fertility through various channels, including social pressure and social learning (Bernardi 2003;Rossier & Bernardi 2009;Diaz et al 2011). As such, these social networks are major carriers of normative ideas about reproductive behaviour, including ideas about the "proper age" for parenthood.…”

Section: Ideal Age At First Birth and Second Birth Rates: Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 99%

'The Proper Age for Parenthood' and Second Birth Rates in Europe

Bavel

Nitsche

2013

European Sociological Review

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Fertility differences in Europe are largely due to disparities in parity progression after the first child. Postponement is recuperated to a larger extent in countries with relatively high fertility, less in countries with very low fertility. Explanations have referred to social policy and socioeconomic context. We argue that cultural factors also need to be taken into account and investigate the relationship between age norms and second birth rates in 23 European countries. Using the third round of the European Social Survey we analyze if ideas about the 'proper' age for parenthood interact with actual ages at first birth in influencing second birth transitions. Our findings indicate that in regions with older ideal ages for parenthood the second birth rate is depressed for women with young ages at first birth, and vice versa. This effect, however, is strongly reduced and remains only marginally significant after controlling for an interaction between regional GDP and age at first birth. This indicates that rich regions exhibit weaker postponement effects, and that this relationship largely absorbs the effect of age norms. We also find that the negative effect of high age at first birth on the second birth rates attenuates with educational attainment.

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“…For an overview of other simulation models of migration, see Klabunde and Willekens (2016); other well-known agent-based models in demography include Billari et al (2007), Aparicio Diaz et al (2011), Fent et al (2013), and Grow and Van Bavel (2015.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

et al. 2017

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We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age-and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.Keywords: international migration; life course modelling; Theory of Planned Behaviour; multistate modelling; microsimulation; agent-based modelling IntroductionFor policymakers and researchers alike, it is of paramount interest to be able to predict how people make demographically relevant decisions. In this paper, we present a novel approach to projection by incorporating decision-making and interaction between individuals in a demographic projection model. We use an individual-based model rather than a population-based model such as the popular cohort-component model. For an overview of approaches to forecasting migration, see Bijak (2011), as well as other recent contributions from Hatton and Williamson (2011), Azose and Raftery (2013), and Abel and Sander (2014. This individual-based micro perspective enables us to incorporate behavioural mechanisms and social processes that influence demographic behaviour and population change into our model. We can thus predict the effect of external shocks, such as policy changes, by making the causal mechanism through which shocks alter behaviour explicit. Comparing model predictions with empirical outcomes facilitates the subsequent drawing of conclusions on the plausibility of the assumed behavioural mechanism. In this way, the model can be improved gradually over time, by refining the parameters and functional forms of its main component, in this case the decision-making on international migration.In the model, as in real life, demographically relevant decisions are embedded in the human life course. Choices are motivated by aspirations and preferences in different domains of life, such as work and family, and constrained by available resources (not only financial, but also cognitive and social resources, and time). We take into consideration that people do not have perfect foresight and usually lack the time and cognitive abilities to acquire the full and unbiased information necessary to make a rational choice. Preferences vary over the life course, as do both the availability of and need for resources, because of events or changing conditions (e.g., available social support). As a result, t...

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Transition to Parenthood: The Role of Social Interaction and Endogenous Networks

Cited by 44 publications

References 43 publications

Reforging the Wedding Ring

Reforging the Wedding Ring

'The Proper Age for Parenthood' and Second Birth Rates in Europe

Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

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