Transitional Regression Models, with Application to Environmental Time Series

Brumback, Babette; Ryan, Louise; Schwartz, Joel; Neas, Lucas M.; Stark, Paul C.; Burge, Harriet A.

doi:10.1080/01621459.2000.10473895

Cited by 127 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Motor vehicle emissions contribute to a substantial proportion of the city's urban air pollution mix and hence strategies to reduce air pollution levels should include ways to reduce motor vehicle dependence. Lastly, in our study, we are not able to establish if the demonstrated effect was merely bringing forward by days or weeks ED attendances that would otherwise still occur (''harvesting'' effect) (McMichael et al, 1998;Schwartz, 2000;Schwartz, 2001). We agree with others (Morris, 2001) who suggest that future studies should investigate the effects of such ''harvesting''.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 70%

“…An outlier was identified for only one of the four outcomes (one outlier out of 1784 days for CVD attendances). Any remaining serial correlation was removed by including first or second order autoregressive terms separately in the model (Brumback et al, 2000). For all four outcomes, a first order autoregressive term was included in the model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Associations between ambient air pollution and daily emergency department attendances for cardiovascular disease in the elderly (65+ years), Sydney, Australia

Jalaludin

Morgan

Lincoln

et al. 2005

J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol

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There are no reported studies on the effects of ambient air pollution on emergency department (ED) attendances in Sydney, Australia. This study aimed to determine associations between ambient air pollutants and ED attendances for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in those aged 65 þ years. We constructed daily time series of hospital ED attendances, air pollutants and meteorological factors for the Sydney metropolitan area from 1 January 1997 to 31 December 2001. We used generalised linear models to determine associations between daily air pollution and daily ED attendances and controlled for the effects of long-term trends, seasonality, weather and other potential confounders. Increased ED attendances for all CVD, cardiac disease and ischaemic heart disease were seen with 24-h particulate pollution, 1-h NO 2 , 8-h CO and 24-h SO 2 . Air pollutants were associated with decreased ED attendances for stroke. The effects of air pollutants on CVD, cardiac disease and stroke attendances were generally greater in the cool period compared to the warm period. The single-pollutant effects of CO, O 3 , NO 2 and SO 2 were essentially unchanged in two-pollutant models. Although air pollution levels in Sydney are relatively low compared to similar cities, we have demonstrated associations between ambient air pollutants and ED attendances for CVD in people aged 65 þ years. Our study adds to the growing evidence for the effects of ambient air pollution on CVD outcomes even at relatively low ambient concentrations.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 70%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Associations between ambient air pollution and daily emergency department attendances for cardiovascular disease in the elderly (65+ years), Sydney, Australia

Jalaludin

Morgan

Lincoln

et al. 2005

J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol

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show abstract

“…In the final model for most countries it was observed that the number of disease cases in any given week was strongly correlated to the levels of the preceding week. A first-order autoregressive term was therefore included in models to ensure statistical inference respected this feature of our data [20].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of temperature on food poisoning: a time-series analysis of salmonellosis in ten European countries

et al. 2004

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The effect of temperature on food poisoning: a time-series analysis of salmonellosis in ten European countries SUMMARYWe investigated the relationship between environmental temperature and reported Salmonella infections in 10 European populations. Poisson regression adapted for time-series data was used to estimate the percentage change in the number of cases associated with a 1 xC increase in average temperature above an identified threshold value. We found, on average, a linear association between temperature and the number of reported cases of salmonellosis above a threshold of 6 xC. The relationships were very similar in The Netherlands, England and Wales, Switzerland, Spain and the Czech Republic. The greatest effect was apparent for temperature 1 week before the onset of illness. The strongest associations were observed in adults in the 15-64 years age group and infection with Salmonella Enteritidis (a serotype of Salmonella). Our findings indicate that higher temperatures around the time of consumption are important and reinforce the need for further education on food-handling behaviour.

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“…In some models, it was necessary to introduce autoregressive terms to eliminate the remaining serial correlation from the residuals (Brumback et al 2000). This approach has been used in a number of recent studies (Rossi et al 1999;Schwartz , 2000a.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The temporal pattern of respiratory and heart disease mortality in response to air pollution.

Zanobetti

Schwartz

Samoli

et al. 2003

Environ Health Perspect

261

155

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Short-term changes in ambient particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters < 10 micro m (PM10) have been associated with short-term fluctuations in mortality or morbidity in many studies. In this study, we tested whether those deaths are just advanced by a few days or weeks using a multicity hierarchical modeling approach for all-cause, respiratory, and cardiovascular deaths, for all ages and stratifying by age groups, within the APHEA-2 (Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach) project. We fit a Poisson regression and used an unconstrained distributed lag to model the effect of PM10 exposure on deaths up to 40 days after the exposure. In baseline models using PM10 the day of and day before the death, we found that the overall PM10 effect (per 10 micro g/m3) was 0.74% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), -0.17 to 1.66] for respiratory deaths and 0.69% (95% CI, 0.31-1.08) for cardiovascular deaths. In unrestricted distributed lag models, the effect estimates increased to 4.2% (95% CI, 1.08-7.42) for respiratory deaths and to 1.97% (95% CI, 1.38-2.55) for cardiovascular deaths. Our study confirms that most of the effect of air pollution is not simply advanced by a few weeks and that effects persist for more than a month after exposure. The effect size estimate for PM10 doubles when we considered longer-term effects for all deaths and for cardiovascular deaths and becomes five times higher for respiratory deaths. We found similar effects when stratifying by age groups. These larger effects are important for risk assessment.

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Transitional Regression Models, with Application to Environmental Time Series

Cited by 127 publications

References 37 publications

Associations between ambient air pollution and daily emergency department attendances for cardiovascular disease in the elderly (65+ years), Sydney, Australia

Associations between ambient air pollution and daily emergency department attendances for cardiovascular disease in the elderly (65+ years), Sydney, Australia

The effect of temperature on food poisoning: a time-series analysis of salmonellosis in ten European countries

The temporal pattern of respiratory and heart disease mortality in response to air pollution.

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