Transitional wave climate regions on continental and polar coasts in a warming world

Abstract

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial-temporal changes in the atmospheric-driven major wave climates (easterlies, southerlies, and westerlies) under two different Representative Concentration Pathways, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the end-of-the-century . By comparing the projected scenarios with historical conditions, we found that the easterly wave climates will be more frequents in the southwest basins (up to 15%) and the southerlies in the eastern basins (up to 20%). While the westerlies are projected to reduce their presence in the mid-latitudes and intensify for the high latitudes associated with the poleward extratropical circulation. As a result, coastal risk will be triggered in transitional wave climate regions, in addition to the risk induced by sea-level rise and storm wave generated, by spatial and frequency changes in the prevailing wave climates that will reach regions where up to now they have not, impacting future coastal environments.

Sedimentary Coastal Cliff Erosion in Greenland

“…The XBeach‐G run‐up calculations show that a decrease in sea‐ice will increase wave run‐up in front of the cliff, likely intensifying cliff erosion. Furthermore, wave power is predicted to increase due to changes of the global circulation in a warmer climate (Odériz et al., 2022). A combination of less sea‐ice and increasing wave power is even more likely to increase coastal cliff erosion in Greenland until 2100.…”

Biogeochemical River Runoff Drives Intense Coastal Arctic Ocean CO2 Outgassing

“…An explicit representation of terrestrial POC may be required to produce a more holistic view on how land-to-sea connectivity would drive carbon flows in an Arctic "green belt," which is already facing rapid and drastic environmental changes. Furthermore, Arctic deltas are projected to become less ice-dominated and more exposed to wave erosion in the future (Odériz et al, 2022;Overeem et al, 2022), bringing more uncertainty to the projected AO carbon cycle. ST (contract NSF 1913888).…”

The Implications of Transitional Climate Regions on Coastal Risk

“…The atmospheric circulation regulates processes at the synoptic scale, such as ocean wave generation and propagation (Odériz et al, 2021). The areas where waves are generated and their associated tracks are expected to shift, becoming wave climates increasingly frequent where they did not (Odériz et al, 2022). In line with these findings, over the last decade, more intense southerlies swells have been affecting the Eastern Pacific coast.…”