Transitioning from Low-Income Growth to High-Income Growth: Is There a Middle Income Trap?

Abstract

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The Middle-Income Trap Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned: A Literature Survey

“…13 Bulman et al (2014) do not justify this choice of income thresholds but generalize it later to some extent.…”

“…The next subsection presents some of the most important absolute approaches (Eichengreen et al, , 2013Felipe et al, 2012;Aiyar et al, 2012) followed by a selection of relative definitions (Woo, 2011;World Bank, 2012;Agénor et al, 2012;Im and Rosenblatt, 2013;Bulman et al, 2014;Robertson and Ye, 2015). Tables 2a and 2b then summarize the different definitions, the middle-income ranges, the database used and the covered period of the absolute approaches and the relative approaches, respectively.…”

“…It would therefore be interesting to see how results change if one only uses two middleincome sub-categories, as most of the other authors do. Bulman et al (2014) distinguish between "escapees" and "non-escapees". Their results show that escapees grow rapidly at all income levels (and all income ranges), Finally, Robertson and Ye (2015) develop a relative approach that is consistent with the idea of club convergence and construct a "time-series definition" of the MIT.…”

“…12 However, Bulman et al (2014) could also be assigned to the theoretical definition approach as they also (additionally) define the MIT as a failed growth strategy of a middle-income country (see Bulman et al, 2014, p. 2). 13 Bulman et al (2014) do not justify this choice of income thresholds but generalize it later to some extent.…”

The Role of Total Factor Productivity Growth in Middle-Income Countries

“…On the other hand, studies such as Barro (2016), Im and Rosenblatt (2015), and Bulman, Eden, and Nguyen (2014) support the view that moving to high-income status from a middle-income country, while in the MIT, is not especially different than escaping from low-income status. Barro (2016) argued that there are no special patterns or trends of dispersion regarding gross domestic product (GDP) growth since 1870 for 25 countries.…”