Transitions into and out of food insecurity: A probabilistic approach with panel data evidence from 15 countries

Reversing Years for Global Food Security: A Review of the Food Security Situation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

“…In 2020, around 66.2% of people ( Figure 5 ) had moderate to severe food insecurity; of this number, 30% had severe food insecurity and almost 37% had moderate food insecurity [ 50 ]. Wang, Andrée, Chamorro, and Spencer [ 51 ], estimated that 704 million people living south of the Sahara experienced food insecurity in 2021.…”

Machine Learning Guided Outlook of Global Food Insecurity Consistent with Macroeconomic Forecasts

“…This proposes that long-term aspects of food insecurity can be tackled through long-term development assistance, while acute food insecurity situations may require direct humanitarian assistance. This also implies that humanitarian objectives may benefit from a different modeling objective that have already been pioneered in earlier work, for instance the 1 to 12 months ahead subnational food crisis risks forecast by Andrée et al (2020) or the 36 months ahead projections at national scale by Wang et al (2020Wang et al ( , 2022.…”

“…The Predicting Food Crises data from Andrée et al ( 2020) includes 2009-2020 quarterly and trimesterly administrative IPC data for 21 countries. Using their data, a 3-year average of the percentages of the country population in each IPC phase was calculated using gridded population data following Wang et al (2020Wang et al ( , 2022, after which a linear regression was used to scale the national IPC phase prevalence rates to the prevalence rate of severe food insecurity using the overlap in cases to estimate the regression. For 14 countries with FIES data and IPC data, pre-2015 data is extrapolated using a linear Fixed Effects model (Adjusted R 2 of 0.98).…”

“…Andrée et al (2020) predict the outbreaks of new food crises up to a full year ahead at the administrative level in 21 highrisk countries using the price data from Andrée (2021a,b) combined with conflict data and remote sensing data. Using the data set from Andrée et al (2020), Wang et al (2020Wang et al ( , 2022 also provide a stochastic simulation model that projects 3 Beyond immediate impacts, food crises also have long-lasting development consequences for countries, including inter-generational health and education effects (Galler and Barrett, 2001;Veenendaal et al, 2013;Galler and Rabinowitz, 2014;Asfaw, 2016;Li et al, 2017), and so they may rapidly alter the long-term development prospects of a country. 4 This interplay between economic outcomes, food insecurity outcomes, and policy decisions was particularly highlighted by the events that unfolded during and after the Arab Spring in 2011.…”

“…SEPTEMBER 28, 2022 tail risks up to 3 years ahead. The current paper essentially proposes a middle ground between the work of Wang et al (2020Wang et al ( , 2022 and Andrée et al (2020), combining the multi-year outlook properties provided by the first approach and the predictive optimization of the latter, while aiming for global coverage such as attempted by Martini et al (2021); Foini et al (2022).…”