Translation of Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling into Routine Public Health Practice

Abstract

Infectious disease dynamic modeling can support outbreak emergency responses. We conducted a workshop to canvas the needs of stakeholders in Australia for practical, real-time modeling tools for infectious disease emergencies. The workshop was attended by 29 participants who represented government, defense, general practice, and academia stakeholders. We found that modeling is underused in Australia and its potential is poorly understood by practitioners involved in epidemic responses. The development of better modeling tools is desired. Ideal modeling tools for operational use would be easy to use, clearly indicate underlying parameterization and assumptions, and assist with policy and decision making.

Flucast: a real-time tool to predict severity of an influenza season (Preprint)

“…We understand that there are trade-offs between the use of sophisticated modelling techniques and simple method in generating outputs for forecasting of influenza epidemics/outbreaks. Although studies have shown the potential benefits of using advanced modelling statistics in this area, and yet most public health practitioners do not use such methods and rely on descriptive data [21]. There are many reasons, and some may due to the lack of proper training or knowledge in modelling and uncertainty of modelling; these may hinder the efficient use of such tools [21].…”

“…Although studies have shown the potential benefits of using advanced modelling statistics in this area, and yet most public health practitioners do not use such methods and rely on descriptive data [21]. There are many reasons, and some may due to the lack of proper training or knowledge in modelling and uncertainty of modelling; these may hinder the efficient use of such tools [21]. There is also a need in the area to engage health system stakeholders involved in operational response and to improve uptake of such tools for decision support.…”

“…They indicated a preference for simple tools, which are easy to apply and understand. Besides, the stakeholders stated that their highest priority was surge and workforce capacity planning during the influenza season [21].…”

Evidence Decision-Making Policy Practice in Emerging Pandemics and Epidemics Threats Preparedness and Response Operations in Africa

“…The growing interest and popularity around more collaborative and co-productive way of formulating evidence translation (ET) research should be balanced with some of the challenges [1]. This includes asking the question whether all research endeavours lend themselves to this approach.…”

“…However, perhaps the answer to this question for some would rest on what gets counted as science, although any applied research may also receive the same criticisms about generalizability, universality and objectivity. However, there may be research agendas, or incremental and discrete research studies within these agendas, that require collaborative and participative partnership [1,2].…”