Transmission Dynamics and Prospects for the Elimination of Canine Rabies

Abstract

Rabies has been eliminated from domestic dog populations in Western Europe and North America, but continues to kill many thousands of people throughout Africa and Asia every year. A quantitative understanding of transmission dynamics in domestic dog populations provides critical information to assess whether global elimination of canine rabies is possible. We report extensive observations of individual rabid animals in Tanzania and generate a uniquely detailed analysis of transmission biology, which explains important epidemiological features, including the level of variation in epidemic trajectories. We found that the basic reproductive number for rabies, R0, is very low in our study area in rural Africa (∼1.2) and throughout its historic global range (<2). This finding provides strong support for the feasibility of controlling endemic canine rabies by vaccination, even near wildlife areas with large wild carnivore populations. However, we show that rapid turnover of domestic dog populations has been a major obstacle to successful control in developing countries, thus regular pulse vaccinations will be required to maintain population-level immunity between campaigns. Nonetheless our analyses suggest that with sustained, international commitment, global elimination of rabies from domestic dog populations, the most dangerous vector to humans, is a realistic goal.

Evaluación de la seroconversión como respuesta a la vacunación antirrábica en perros en el departamento del Valle del Cauca, Colombia, 2009

“…Por lo contrario, con la edad se observó una tendencia bien definida en resultados seropositivos, concentración de anticuerpos neutralizadores y porcentaje de perros con respuesta inmunitaria humoral adecuada, lo que concuerda con estudios anteriores (22)(23)(24)(25)(26). Los perros con mayor edad habían sido inmunizados más veces que los jóvenes, lo que explicaría esta tendencia e indicaría, además, que los perros en el departamento del Valle del Cauca han estado sujetos periódicamente a vacunación antirrábica.…”

Estimating Burdens of Neglected Tropical Zoonotic Diseases on Islands with Introduced Mammals

“…[11][12][13] Treatment of these diseases includes antibiotics, antiprotozoals, and vaccinations, but treatment is challenging to administer to remote populations. In mainland areas, controlling the reservoir host populations can reduce the source of infection, [14][15][16] but the ongoing costs for control can be prohibitively expensive. [17][18][19] In contrast, on islands where immigration of introduced mammals is low and potentially preventable, management actions to control (reduce populations) or eradicate (completely remove) introduced mammals represent significant public health opportunities to reduce or potentially eliminate these diseases.…”

Evaluation of methods for short-term marking of domestic dogs for rabies control

“…While studies on these demographic rates in dog populations are limited, data from northern Tanzania show that attaining 60% vaccination coverage during annual campaigns will be sufficient to prevent vaccination coverage falling below this critical threshold in the period between campaigns (Hampson et al, 2009). This is in line with the empirically-derived recommendation of 70% vaccination coverage in dogs to control rabies (WHO, 2013).…”

“…Rabies in dogs, , reintroduction of rabies from bats or wildlife in dog population, and cases of the disease transmitted from dogs to people, can be controlled and in certain circumstances eliminated by the mass vaccination of dogs against the virus (Cleaveland et al, 2006;De Lucca et al, 2013;Lembo et al, 2010;Velasco-Villa et al, 2008). Using estimates of the basic reproductive rate of rabies from a number of outbreaks in dogs around the world, Hampson et al (2009) estimate that a critical vaccination coverage of only 20-40% of a dog population is sufficient to prevent outbreaks of rabies.…”