Transmission Dynamics of Large Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Homeless Shelter, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 2020

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the potential for rapid transmission in congregate settings. We describe the multidisciplinary response to an outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in a large homeless shelter in Chicago, Illinois, USA. The response to the outbreak included 4 rounds of mass PCR testing of all staff and residents and subsequent isolation of persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. We further describe the dynamics of the shelter outbreak by fitting a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model incorporating the widespread SARS-CoV-2 testing and isolation measures implemented in this shelter. Our model demonstrates that rapid transmission of COVID-19 in the shelter occurred before the outbreak was detected; rates of transmission declined after widespread testing and isolation measures were put in place. Overall, we demonstrate the feasibility of mass PCR testing and isolation in congregate settings and suggest the necessity of prompt response to suspected COVID-19 outbreaks in homeless shelters.

A systematic review of the international evidence on the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures in communal rough sleeping accommodation

“…Studies were conducted in the United States (USA), England, France, Singapore and Canada. Two studies 26 , 27 were longitudinal. Ten studies were surveillance reports, 20 , 26–34 one was a pilot intervention report 35 three were modelling or simulation studies.…”

“…The risk of bias was rated as low in three studies, 26 , 36 , 38 moderate in eight studies, 20 , 27 , 29–31 , 34 , 35 , 37 and high in three studies. 28 , 32 , 33 The risk of bias for each study is presented in Tables 2 and 3 .…”

A data-driven hybrid ensemble AI model for COVID-19 infection forecast using multiple neural networks and reinforced learning

“… N.P. Homeless Shelter, Chicago, Illinois, USA [ 47 ] Time series smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model 0.208 0.297 N.P. N.P.…”

Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated risk factors among staff and residents at homeless shelters in King County, Washington: an active surveillance study

“…However, implementation of consistently available SARS-CoV-2 testing in shelters has been challenging [7]. Most studies have relied on cross-sectional data or been centred on single outbreak investigations in specific geographies, limiting their generalisability [5,[8][9][10]. Robust testing data are vital to mitigating viral transmission through early identification and isolation of cases [11].…”